Perspectives

Through September, the S&P 500® Index posted a year-to-date gain of 19%, its best performance since 1997; these results, though, mask the modest 2.2% one-year performance. The equity markets reversed course last Tuesday following the release of the September ISM Manufacturing Index; the 47.8 reading, the lowest level in ten years, heightening recessionary fears. On Friday, the equity markets recovered with a “goldilocks” jobs report. The economy added 136,000 jobs in September and unemp… View More

With non-farm payrolls set to be reported on Friday, the headline September data has, thus far, left something to be desired. While this is far from new news, investors have stretched the growth discount in the opening days of the quarter. While we’d bet better than even money this corrective phase continues in coming weeks, we do not anticipate a re-play of the 4Q’18 experience. For one, despite a weaker Sept. U.S. PMI, global activity gauges have actually improved M/M, a far cry from circu… View More

Politics overshadowed trade again this week with House Speaker Pelosi’s announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The equity markets reaction reflects concern that the inquiry might imperil Congress’ approval the USMCA agreement and hold up spending bills. The resulting “risk off” sentiment led to across-the-board weekly declines as the Russell 2000® Index declined 2.52%, followed by Nasdaq (‑2.19%), S&P 500® Index (-1.01%) and Dow Jones Industrial Averag… View More

The equity markets, following three consecutive weekly gains, declined last week as concerns relating to trade, Federal Reserve policies and oil supplies weighed on market sentiment. The Russell 2000® Index fell 1.17%; losses for the other indices included the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.05%), Nasdaq (‑0.72%) and S&P 500® (-0.51%). The week began with news of drone attacks, purportedly by Iran, on Saudi Arabia’s production facilities; the impact on production, 5.7 million barrels … View More

Positive trade-related commentary from the U.S. and China provided momentum as markets rebounded from oversold conditions for many cyclical stocks. The Russell 2000® Index rose 4.85%, its best weekly gain since 2016. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.57%), the S&P 500® Index (0.96%) and the Nasdaq (0.91%) were also positive for last week. Some analysts note that a trade deal might provide a greater upside for value stocks over growth stocks; indeed, this week’s gains in the Russell 200… View More

Equity markets continued to rally last week as the U.S. and China announced plans to meet again in early October. The S&P 500® Index (1.79%) led the major indices, followed by Nasdaq (1.76%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.49%) and the Russell 2000® Index (0.69%). New tariffs went into effect on September 1st; and the markets, in the absence of progress in trade negotiations, reacted negatively. Also, the release of the July ISM Manufacturing Index, which fell below 50 for the first time … View More

The equity markets rebounded last week to close the month on a positive note.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average (3.02%) led the major indices, followed by the S&P 500® Index (2.79%), Nasdaq (2.72%) and Russell 2000® Index (2.42%).  Commentary from the U.S. and China seemed to suggest that both sides want to continue trade discussions; the previously scheduled September meeting has not been canceled.  Also, China has not responded to the latest tariff increases from the U.S.; and Chin… View More

The U.S./China trade war continued to dominate headlines last week as China announced tariffs of 5% to 10% on $75 billion of goods, including autos and oil, effective September 1st and December 1st.  The action was in response to President Trump’s previously announced tariffs scheduled for September 1; they may also reflect China’s displeasure over the decision to sell $8 billion of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan.  Markets closed lower for the fourth consecutive week: the Russell 2000® Inde… View More

The equity and bond markets ended a volatile week last week in a somewhat optimistic mood.  Once again, trade and geopolitical events took center stage as the markets posted another week of losses.  On Wednesday, recessionary fears drove an 800 point (3%) decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, its biggest selloff of the year.  The equity markets fell in reaction to a yield curve inversion (that is, when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note  fell below the 2-year U.S. Treasury N… View More

Overnight between August 13th and August 14th, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Interest Rate dropped below the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Interest Rate.  In the investment world, this is known as a “Yield Curve Inversion.” The inversion of the 2-year and 10-year treasury is significant because historically every recession has been preceded by an inversion of the 2-year and the 10-year treasury rate and because it is uncommon to experience this yield curve inversion without a recession occurring within… View More