Perspectives

The equity markets ebbed and flowed last week on reports of a Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China. On Friday, the White House confirmed earlier rumors of an agreement; the markets’ muted reaction reflects the lack of specifics and modest scope of the deal. More details are coming out today and looks like the markets are welcoming the news. Last week, the Nasdaq (0.91%) led the market gains followed by S&P 500® Index (0.73%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.43%) and Ru… View More

Most of the major indices closed fractionally lower for the week even after Friday’s jobs report, an unexpected gain of 266,000 jobs in November, provided the markets an early holiday gift. The estimates, 187,000 non-payroll jobs would still have been an improvement over Octobers’ upwardly revised 156,000 new hires. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, a 50-year low; wages increased 3.1% year-over-year. Also, the Michigan consumer confidence index rose to 99.2 compared to estimates of 97.0. F… View More

The global economic environment seems to be healthier than it was a year ago. Notably, we see evidence of more solid growth around the world, and not just in the U.S. as was the case through much of 2018. The consumer sector in particular has been quite strong and has propelled the broader economy. One year ago, investors were highly worried about a global recession, but those risks appear to have faded. In fact, if anything, we think investors may have grown too optimistic over prospects for s… View More

A number of tactical indicators remain overbought, but the historical data would say that’s actually a good thing. Overbought conditions in uptrends are often consistent with better than average future returns and positive hit rates, and their presence is a common feature in durable market advances. Seasonality can reinforce a trend, and the calendar is clearly a tailwind for performance the final 6 weeks of the year. Following several consecutive weeks of gains, the equity markets lost momen… View More

Investors remain at the mercy of trade headlines which are light on substance. The major indices eked out slight gains last week despite contradictory statements on the progress of finalizing the Phase One agreement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.17%, followed by the S&P 500® Index (+0.88%), the Nasdaq (+0.77%) and the Russell 2000® Index (-0.15%). Negotiations stalled this week as China stated that it expected a tariff roll back as a condition for an agreement. The U.S. counter… View More

In the stock market, expectations matter. At any given moment, the stock market will reflect a certain set of expectations. And so, what moves markets are changes in those expectations. In other words, news doesn’t have to be good or bad on an absolute basis to move markets. It just has to be relatively better or worse than what was expected. Based on this logic, you can have bad news crossing the wires. But as long as investors and traders were expecting worse, you should in turn expect price… View More

Fears that a slowing economy might lead to a recession eased last week as corporate earnings continued to outperform expectations; Friday’s jobs report provided additional optimism. The S&P 500® Index and the Nasdaq reached new highs as investors moved from safe harbor U.S. Treasuries into the equity markets. For the week, the Russell 2000® Index (1.96%) led followed by Nasdaq (1.74%), S&P 500® (1.47%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.44%). Over 70% of companies in the S&P 50… View More

Trade commentaries and earnings results provided momentum for a third straight week of gains. The Nasdaq led with a gain of 1.90% followed by the Russell 2000® Index (1.51%), the S&P 500® Index (1.22%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.70%). With earnings results from approximately 36% of the companies in the S&P 500®, nearly 80% of reporting companies exceeded analysts’ expectations. Companies across many sectors (including Microsoft, Intel, Phillips 66, Boston Scientific, An… View More

Last week the S&P 500® Index (0.54%) posted its second consecutive weekly gain on the strength of corporate earnings. For the week the Russell 2000® Index (1.56%) led the major indices followed by the S&P 500® (0.54%) and the Nasdaq (0.40%) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -0.17%. The Dow lost ground on reports from Johnson & Johnson of a baby powder recall (due to traces of asbestos) and Boeing (on reports the company failed to disclose “concerning” instant message… View More

The markets closed higher for the week, and ended a three-week losing streak, following Friday’s announcement of a “phase 1” partial trade deal. The White House announced the suspension of tariffs scheduled for this Tuesday on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports; China agreed to purchase between $40 billion and $50 billion of U.S. agricultural goods. For the week, the Nasdaq rose 0.93% followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.91%), the Russell 2000® Index (+0.75%), and the S&… View More