Perspectives

It felt like we packed a month worth of economic happenings into just one week. The first presidential debate, Supreme Court nomination, employment data continues to get better and many of our countries political leaders, including the President, contract the Coronavirus. Despite President Trump testing positive for coronavirus, equities ended a volatility week higher as investors became more upbeat about a potential stimulus package. While the positive test for the President creates near term u… View More

COVID-19 cases in the United Kingdom, France, and Spain have been picking up, prompting London Mayor Sadiq Khan to have talks for new restrictions aimed to slow the spread of the virus. Treasury yields dropped over the course of the week on the increased COVID concerns in Europe and comments from the Federal Reserve. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress and said another fiscal stimulus would be important to aid the economy. These calls for additional stimulus were ech… View More

Just when we thought we knew what would happen between now and election day, the passing of Justice Ginsberg has reshuffled the deck just 40+ days ahead of the election. President Trump is likely to nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat in the coming days with Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa being the top contenders. Coney Barrett is a devout Catholic important in the Midwest. Lagoa would be the first Cuban American woman nominated to the Supreme Court. Senate Republicans … View More

The S&P 500 Index returned -2.49% last week. The index recorded gains for five consecutive months through August and is up 4.80% year-to-date. However, the first two weeks of September have trended down with the index currently down 4.50% for the month. Crude oil closed at $37.33 per barrel on Friday, declining 6.14% for the week. This is the second straight week of losses, marking the largest two-week decline since April. Energy stocks have been under pressure posting the worst sector perf… View More

September is a notoriously difficult month for the markets. It has been consistently difficult in many years, but we were hopeful this year would be different with the Coronavirus interrupting our normal lives and habits. Since the lockdowns in March, there has been a tremendous pick up in retail investors, who now make up 25% of invested assets. Traditionally, retail investors have exacerbated market trends. Retail investors, generally speaking, tend to buy and sell at the wrong times (buy high… View More

Stocks continued to rise to record levels last week after a clearer path was laid out by the Federal Reserve. In a shift from previous statements, chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed would be more accommodative and let inflation and employment run at higher rates that will likely accompany lower interest rates. The statement came as unemployment benefits dropped, signaling the labor market is recovering. President Trump officially accepted the GOP nomination on Thursday. His speech at the White … View More

The perceived disconnect between the strength in equity markets vs. the current standing of the economy remains – without hesitation – the primary source of anxiety among investors. We continue to think about this a little bit differently than the consensus… specifically, the quiet leadership from the more cyclical corners of the market may be more suggestive of a positive economic surprise in the months ahead. Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples (equally weighted), is on the cusp … View More

Last week, equities were positive as value names led the way. The S&P 500 index was up 0.69% while the S&P 500 Value index was up 0.91% and the S&P 500 Growth index returned 0.55%. Top performers in the S&P 500 index were cruise providers Royal Caribbean Cruises LTD and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings along with gaming/hotel titans Wynn Resorts LTD and MGM Resorts International. These names benefitted from the 7-day average positive COVID19 tests falling to 54,503 on Friday, down … View More

Equities continued to move higher amid uncertainty around an extension of unemployment benefits and continued tensions with China. As of the close of markets on Friday, an agreement between the House Democrats and Senate Republicans on a new round of federal stimulus is still trillions apart. On Saturday after negotiations failed to yield any results, President Trump followed through on his promise to issue executive orders after the collapse of stimulus negotiations with Democrats by: 1) Alloc… View More

Last week, equities were positive as mega-cap technology stocks led the way with a slew of strong quarterly earnings announcements. The S&P 500 index rallied 1.5% while the Nasdaq Composite index was up 3.5%. Looking ahead to next week, Bloomberg expects 133 names in the S&P 500 index to announce quarterly results. As earnings season continues, equity markets look to learn more about how much COVID shutdowns are harming U.S. companies. U.S. real GDP plunged in 2Q, falling at a post-war… View More