Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% - the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains for the year. Frankly, it’s amazing to us that the market had been so resilient! Maybe it’s because recent history with stocks and viruses is that markets overreact leading to significant buying opportunities along the way. Over a 38-day trading period during the height of t… View More
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Coronavirus-related economic fears continue to dominate markets, but we believe effects will be short term and limited. Once investors begin to look past near-term risks, we think areas of the global financial market that have benefited on a relative basis (growth styles, defensive areas and bond market proxies) could take a hit. On balance, we think the equity bull market should continue, but we are concerned that valuations look stretched in some areas. Investor attention remains dominated b… View More
Markets are off sharply this morning as the virus headlines appear to have worsened over the weekend, yet we’re still struck with how complacent the options market has been. The daily put/call ratios remain very low, inconsistent with the type of fear often associated with an exogenous event like Coronavirus. This likely has to change, and lower prices are a catalyst. Ultimately we suspect this is a correction in an ongoing bull market, but better S&P support is still a ways off in the 305… View More
Once again, the major indices moved higher last week despite the on-going focus on the coronavirus. The Nasdaq (2.21%) led the major indices followed by the Russell 2000® Index (1.87%), the S&P 500® Index (1.58%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.02%). On Thursday, China announced revised diagnostic criteria for the virus; the change increased the number of cases to 66,492 with 1,523 deaths. The news unsettled the markets on Thursday, with modest gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500®… View More
Last week, corporate earnings, and China’s announcement of a 50% tariff reduction on some U.S. products, provided momentum amidst coronavirus uncertainties. The Nasdaq (4.04%) led the major indices for the week followed by the S&P 500® Index (3.17%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (3.00%) and the Russell 2000® Index (2.65%). The January employment report, 225,000 jobs added, far exceeded expectations of 161,500. Wage growth remains modest: 0.2% for the month for a 3.1% (+0.1%) annual i… View More
This week, uncertainties related to the global economic impact of the coronavirus overwhelmed the markets; the virus, first discovered in Wuhan China, has spread to at least 18 countries with almost 10,000 confirmed cases including 213 deaths. On Thursday, the World Health Organization declared an international health emergency; on Friday, the U.S. declared the virus a public health emergency. Friday’s 603 point selloff in the Dow Jones Industrial Average marked the largest one-day decline in … View More
The potential global impact of the coronavirus upstaged the markets’ focus on earnings and economic data. The deadly virus has spread far beyond its origination in Wuhan China; as of Friday, over 900 cases (including 26 deaths) have been confirmed in 11 countries. On Friday, the unknown reach of the virus triggered a market selloff which was the largest decline since October 8, 2019. For the week, the Russell 2000® Index (‑2.20%) posted the biggest decline followed by the Dow Jones Industri… View More
Trade is moving forward… USMCA is approved by the senate and the phase one trade deal is signed with China
The indices rose last week on the strength of the signing of Phase One trade agreement with China, the Senate’s passage of the USMCA agreement, positive economic reports and a good start to earnings season. The Russell 2000® Index (2.53%) led the major indices, followed by the Nasdaq (2.29%), the S&P 500® Index (1.97%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.82%). On Wednesday, the U.S. and China signed the Phase One agreement; details of the deal address several long-standing concerns by th… View More
Congress, at almost the last minute, passed a large number of tax changes, including a number that affect retirement plans and will become effective in 2020, as well as extensions through 2020 for a number of tax provisions that had expired or were about to. The list of changes is quite large, so we have only included those that are most likely to affect our clients. We recommend following up with your accountant for a full list of tax changes and how they may affect your personal or business si… View More
Most of the equity markets edged higher this week despite the uncertainties in the Middle East; the Russell 2000® Index declined fractionally. For the week, the Nasdaq (1.75%) led the major indices followed by the S&P 500® Index (0.94%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.66%) and the Russell 2000® (-0.19%). The markets opened the week lower following last week’s assassination of Iran’s military leader General Soleimani by U.S. drones in Iraq. Iran then retaliated with a nighttime, n… View More