Perspectives

We want to share an article that we came across while following news on the U.S. trade dispute with China.  It is a little outside our normal discussion of markets and economics, but we think it gives important insight into what is going on between the U.S. and China, as well as other major world powers.  We have added some highlighting to bring attention to certain details in the article.   Some may be inclined to believe the issues with Huawei are politically motivated, and some of the ar… View More

Trade dominated market sentiment as investors reacted to the breakdown in U.S./China trade negotiations and the potential economic impact. Trading volumes suggest that many investors chose to sit on the sidelines amidst the uncertainty.  Last Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 617 points (-2.38%) then reversed course leading all indices at the end of the week with a decline of 0.69%, followed by the S&P 500® (-0.76%), Nasdaq (-1.27%) and Russell 2000® (2.37%).  President Trum… View More

On Sunday April 5th, President Trump tweeted that trade negotiations with China were moving too slowly; he announced a tariff increase (from 10% to 25%) on $200 billion of Chinese imports effective Friday April 10th and announced his intention to initiate a 25% tariff on an additional $320 billion of imports from China.  China, while offering no details, indicated its intention to reciprocate.  The sudden change in outlook for a trade agreement sent the markets tumbling last week: the Nasdaq … View More

The moves made by China last week should not be a surprise... Last Friday President Trump seemed to come out of nowhere with one of his famous Tweets saying he would impose the pending tariffs on China starting at 12:01am Friday May 10.  This caused markets to react negatively as it seemed President Trump was going rogue. Markets opened down on Monday almost 400 points and then rebounded by the end of the day recovering most of its loss.  Yesterday we were not so lucky and the market sold off… View More

The persistently low rate of inflation is feeding a debate on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.  The latest inflation reading (specifically, the PCE Core rate) fell to an annual rate of only 1.6% despite overall strength in the economy.  White House officials and some economists argue that the Fed should support continued economic expansion by lowering interest rates; indeed, in the lead up to the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, many investors anticipated a rate cut.  However, in announc… View More

Less than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019. Many were in a tizzy about the "second derivative," of growth, obsessing that near zero growth in Q1 would mean three straight quarters of deceleration in real GDP, which if extrapolated meant a recession could be lurking. Oops! The US economy accelerated in the first quarter, with real GDP up at a 3.2% annual rate … View More

U.S. stocks were mixed last week, with the S&P 500 Index largely unchanged. Behind the headline numbers, however, there was some movement within and between sectors. Health care stocks sold off sharply last week, with managed care stocks hit particularly hard by regulatory concerns. The CEO of United Healthcare came out strongly against the “Medicare for all” plans being discussed by Democratic presidential candidates, which called the issue into focus. In contrast, both technology and f… View More

On Friday, the much anticipated earnings season began with JP Morgan reporting earnings 5% above expectations; positive commentary by management on the strong demand for credit by consumers and businesses helped propel the Financials sector higher.  The Nasdaq led all indices for the week (0.57%) followed by the S&P 500® (0.51%) and the Russell 2000® Index (0.14%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.05%.  The S&P 500® reached an important milestone on Friday when the Index cro… View More

China’s release of strong economic data last Sunday set the stage for across-the-board market gains in an otherwise quiet week leading into next week’s start of earnings season.  The Russell 2000® Index (2.78%) led the major indices followed by the Nasdaq (2.71%), S&P 500® Index (2.06%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.91%).  Last Monday’s momentum extended through the week with upbeat comments from U.S. and Chinese officials on the progress of trade negotiations; a meeting… View More

The S&P 500's performance for the first quarter is its best quarterly gain since Q3 of 2009 and its finest start to the year since 1998. The quarter certainly benefited from an oversold bounce back after the fourth quarter's heavy 14% slump, but analysts still see a positive period ahead. While there could be some bumps in Q2 as the market struggles with earnings growth and a slower economy, positive U.S. China trade relations and investing sentiment could propel stocks higher. The last da… View More