Perspectives

There were very few places to hide by the end of last week, as even the “safe” stocks and groups got hit on Friday with Consumer Staples down nearly -2%, Utilities weaker on the day, Software under pressure, and even the Healthcare sector clipped -3.3% by day’s end.  Flows into Healthcare have turned particularly frothy over the last several months. Former leaders like Equipment and Managed Care are unlikely to be spared.  That’s the thing about corrective phases – ultimately, even t… View More

Over the last few weeks we have gotten a lot of questions as to what is up with the markets. We have explained in great detail a few things that are weighing down the market, like the recent oil sell off, the Federal reserve tightening too quickly, and the trade negotiations with China.  All of these things are affecting the market but they should not be making the market swing like it has since the election just a few weeks ago.    We read a great article this morning that echo’s some of … View More

Turmoil reigned over the markets last week despite generally positive economic news.  The last two weeks (months) have been wild, to say the least. For the week, a “risk off” sentiment prevailed; the Russell 2000® Index fell 5.56%; the Nasdaq lost 4.93%, S&P 500® Index fell 4.60% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.50%. The week began positively, with the announcement that the U.S. would delay tariffs as it negotiated terms of a new trade pact with China.  The euphoria quickl… View More

Last week we discussed the Federal Reserve policy as one of the items weighing down market performance. Other items currently weighing on the  market are trade with China and the big sell-off in oil.  The last 5 days appear to have broken favorably.  Ultimately it’s the response from price action to news that we care about, and on that score, last Wednesday’s post-Powell move was among the strongest internal days we’ve seen for stocks this year.  It looks like we may get another shot t… View More

Under normal circumstances the markets do well in November and December.  Since 2009, we have not seen normal economic circumstances, and we are playing catch up in uncharted waters.  Normally, in the wake of a recession we see three major strategies taken by Washington to reduce the recession's severity, but after the great recession, we saw just two of the three strategies implemented.  Washington increased spending and lowered interest rates; now, nine years later, we are seeing the result… View More

When looking at the market, and its reaction to some of today's news stories, we're compelled to share some perspective.  There is so much talk about the length of the Bull Market and when the next recession will come that it appears some investors may not be able to see the forest for the trees.   One of the TOP TRENDING STORIES today was, Retail disappointments, energy decline hit Wall Street. (1)   "Target Corp said on Tuesday that third-quarter profit missed estimates as investments in i… View More

Following a strong earnings season, several factors, including falling oil prices, Brexit, Italy’s controversial budget, tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s likely rate increase, continued to dampen investor sentiment.  All of the major indices fell for the week, the Russell 2000® declined 1.42%, followed by the S&P 500® Index (-1.61%), the Nasdaq (-2.15%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.22%).  The decline in oil prices into bear market territory created additional concerns t… View More

As you know, market volatility has been on everyone’s mind.  We wanted to update you on our thoughts as to what we believe the source of the volatility is, and when we think it may subside. Strategic market bottoms that give way to durable rallies often begin from a more depressed sentiment backdrop than is currently present. In addition to the timely put/call data (no movement yesterday), we continue to watch the weekly I.I. bull/bear survey for a signal on sentiment.  Optimism has retreate… View More

Phew! Now that mid-terms are behind us (well, almost behind us with results still pending in Florida and Arizona), we can start focusing on the Presidential election for 2020! We're kidding, of course. Sort of... With this week's record-setting turnout and enthusiasm, atypical of mid-term election years, both Republicans and Democrats can each claim victory. We would remind you, split governments bode well for equity markets on average, and the S&P 500 has not declined in the 12 months foll… View More

The major indices rose last week despite declines on Friday.  Investment sentiment improved as the Russell 2000® Index led all the major indices (+4.33%) followed by the Nasdaq (+2.65%), S&P 500® Index (+2.42%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.36%).  Several factors, including strong corporate earnings and job gains, influenced the upturn.  Disappointing earnings reports tended to be company-specific; for example, Apple reported better-than-expected earnings even though iPhone s… View More