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Global Economy is slowing but the U.S is still the Belle of the Ball

by Fortem Financial March 25, 2019

The tug-of-war between the bulls and bears continued with mixed economic data and the absence of significant market catalysts.   On Friday, all of the major indices sold off on global growth concerns and ongoing trade tensions.  For the week, the Russell 2000® Index fell 2.67%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.34%), the S&P 500® Index (-0.77%), and the Nasdaq (-0.60%).  The Federal Reserve provided news headlines on Wednesday: the Fed lowered its 2019 U.S. economic grow… View More

The Fed will stop raising rates. Now what?

by Fortem Financial March 22, 2019

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Committee announced (as we have been expecting) that they would not raise rates again in 2019.  Powell indicated that the Fed's pausing is because of a more significant slowdown in growth than anticipated.  Much of this "slow down" is being measured through "Industrial Production."  We think the magnitude of the slow down may be a little overstated.  Below is a chart of U.S Industrial production over the last five years.  As you can see, the current drop i… View More

The Markets continue to climb the wall of worry

by Fortem Financial March 19, 2019

For the first time since October, the S&P closed above the 2815 level to end last week.  Technology has driven this last leg higher with the equally-weighted Nasdaq 100 right on the cusp of fresh all-time highs and the Semiconductors continuing to exhibit leadership. More broadly though, the market still appears to be in the midst of a consolidation phase with the Russell 2000 still below its February highs and the Transportation stocks again lagging.  These aren’t major blemishes, but … View More

Markets seem to be consolidating, which is a good thing

by Fortem Financial March 11, 2019

While last week marked just the second down week of the year for the S&P, many individual names have been consolidating since mid-February.  The equity markets declined, with the worst 1-week performance this year, on mixed economic data.  For last week the Russell 2000® Index, the weakest performer, fell 4.26%, followed by Nasdaq (-2.46%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.21%), and the S&P 500® Index (-2.16%.)  Low trading volumes suggest that many investors are sitting on the… View More

China negotiations moving forward... Brexit is a mess, but does anyone care?

by Fortem Financial March 4, 2019

Equity markets were mixed last week as no significant events motivated investors to buy or sell.  The Nasdaq led the indices this week with a 0.90% gain, followed by S&P 500® (0.40%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.02%) and Russell 2000® Index (-0.03 %).  Early in the week, President Trump announced a postponement of additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products with no extension date provided.  Reports later in the week indicated that President Trump and President XI may m… View More

Markets believe we are Inching Towards A China Deal

by Fortem Financial February 25, 2019

President Trump’s announcement last night delaying an escalation in China tariffs from going into effect on March 1 shows that we are moving towards a deal in the coming month.Trump is becoming more pro-growth and is looking for a deal ahead of his re-election. Avoiding the escalation of tariffs prevents an additional $50bn of tariffs from going into effect in CY 2019. We are having a harder time seeing a path to removing existing tariffs, which will be largely dependent on the Chinese making … View More

Market Pausing, But Average Stock Outperforming

by Fortem Financial February 11, 2019

While the market has paused over recent days, the equally-weighted S&P has continued to outperform and reflects an improvement for the “average stock.”  The equity markets started last week on a positive note before retreating as trade concerns and Brexit dampened investor enthusiasm.  The major indices rose fractionally: the Nasdaq gained 0.55%, followed by the Russell 2000® Index (0.29%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.17%) and the S&P 500® Index (0.05%.)  Trade concerns… View More

Best January for markets in more than 30 years

by Fortem Financial February 4, 2019

Equities posted the best January results in thirty years; the abrupt reversal of fortune, while perhaps bittersweet, signaled renewed confidence in the economy.  For the week the S&P 500® Index rose 1.57%, followed by the Nasdaq (1.38%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.32%) and Russell 2000® Index (1.29%).  On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and removed longstanding commentary that further rate increases may be necessary.  The Fed also stated that its prima… View More

The Fed leaves rates unchanged

by Fortem Financial January 30, 2019

Today the Federal Reserve Board decided to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged.  More importantly, they also said that "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes."   After the December meeting (when the Fed raised rates by 0.25%), we shared that we thought Powell's (and the Federal Re… View More

The government is open, at least until February 15

by Fortem Financial January 29, 2019

The equity markets ended this holiday-shortened week essentially unchanged.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.12%) and the Nasdaq (+0.11%) led with modest gains followed by the Russell 2000® Index (+0.02%) while the S&P 500® Index fell 0.22%.  Shortly before the markets closed on Friday, President Trump announced a deal with lawmakers to approve a bill which would reopen the federal government until February 15th while negotiations continue.  State unemployment claims for last week … View More

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