Perspectives

The equity markets recovery continued last week led by a 2.96% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average followed by the S&P 500® Index (2.87%), Nasdaq (2.66%) and Russell 2000® Index (2.43%).  Corporate earnings season began last week with major financial institutions including Citigroup, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs; each posted earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations despite low trading revenues related to December’s severe volatility.  The companies believe t… View More

The equity market recovery continued this week as the oil price rebound, Federal Reserve comments regarding ‘patience’ in interest rate policies, and mid-level trade negotiations with China improved investor sentiment.  The lack of progress on the government shutdown, which on Saturday will become the longest in history, apparently did not influence market sentiment.  Fears of a recession subsided as the Russell 2000® Index led the markets with a 4.83% gain followed by Nasdaq (+3.45%); S… View More

Friday’s rally provided a welcomed start to the New Year as all of the major indices posted solid gains. For the week, the Russell 2000® Index (3.20%) led all of the major indices, followed by the Nasdaq (2.34%), S&P 500® Index (1.86%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.61%). Consumer sentiment rose on positive employment data, and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Friday’s release of the December employment report included 312,000 jobs in December, the largest month… View More

Each year our Friend  Bob Doll, who is Chief Equity Strategist & Senior Portfolio Manager at Nuveen asset management, gives his view on the new year.  His insights are very thoughtful and give us some insight to the year ahead.  Below are Bob’s comments for 2019 and how he believes the year will unfold in the Economy, markets and some insight to geopolitical events that could affect your portfolios. 2019: Choppy and frustrating, but no recession First a look back at a disappointing 20… View More

The equity markets certainly took investors on a wild ride in the holiday shortened week.  On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 650 points; on Wednesday, the markets rallied with the Dow gaining 1086 points, its largest one-day gain in history.  On Thursday, extreme volatility drove the Dow down over 600 points before reversing course to close up 260 points.  For the week, the major indices posted gains for the first time in December, the Nasdaq rebounded from bear market territ… View More

Today is a great example of the danger of trying to time the market.  In October, November, and December, investor sentiment began to sour, and the markets trended lower.  The S&P 500 sold off 19.8% from September 21, 2018 through December 24, 2018.  The Dow sold off 18.5% and the Nasdaq sold off 22.5% during the same period.  With market losses mounting, 2018 was beginning to feel a lot like 2008.  However, there are sharp contrasts between 2008 and 2018.   In 2008, the US (and glob… View More

The federal government is headed for a partial government shutdown that will likely last until January 3rd when the new Congress is sworn in. This is not the first time we have had a government shutdown through the holiday season, as we had one in 1995 when Bill Clinton was president. The major difference between today and 1995 is that this will be a “partial” shutdown with nearly 75 percent of the government already funded and completely unaffected by the shutdown. That leaves just 25 pe… View More

With attention on the Federal Reserve's decision to increase rates and their updated outlook for 2019, we wanted to share an article today that CNBC published (included below).  As we wrote in our commentary after the Fed's press release on Wednesday, we believe the Fed and Powell were (1) buying themselves time - and the ability to review the data that will come in that time, and (2) leaving the door wide open to reduce the number of rate hikes they may do in 2019 without closing the door on f… View More

The markets are giving investors a rational reason to remain optimistic, but with investors' focus on the Fed's statement yesterday (and their interpretation of what they think it meant) seems to be clouding their vision. The chart below shows the S&P 500's earnings per share (green line), which is what ultimately moves the stock market (blue line)higher or lower.  Looking over the last three years, we've seen consistent, stable earnings growth.  In early 2018, we can see the dramati… View More

As was widely expected, the Fed raised the Federal Funds Rate 0.25%, bringing it to 2.5%. The press release shows a balance of demonstrating a willingness to ease the previously outlined path of interest rate hikes and a desire to avoid giving the unintended impression that they view the economy as weak.  Rather than stating today that there will be no rate hikes next year, their outlook changed from an expectation of 3 rate hikes to 2 potential rate hikes next year. In their statement, they s… View More