Perspectives

Equities posted the best January results in thirty years; the abrupt reversal of fortune, while perhaps bittersweet, signaled renewed confidence in the economy.  For the week the S&P 500® Index rose 1.57%, followed by the Nasdaq (1.38%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.32%) and Russell 2000® Index (1.29%).  On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and removed longstanding commentary that further rate increases may be necessary.  The Fed also stated that its prima… View More

Today the Federal Reserve Board decided to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged.  More importantly, they also said that "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes."   After the December meeting (when the Fed raised rates by 0.25%), we shared that we thought Powell's (and the Federal Re… View More

The equity markets ended this holiday-shortened week essentially unchanged.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.12%) and the Nasdaq (+0.11%) led with modest gains followed by the Russell 2000® Index (+0.02%) while the S&P 500® Index fell 0.22%.  Shortly before the markets closed on Friday, President Trump announced a deal with lawmakers to approve a bill which would reopen the federal government until February 15th while negotiations continue.  State unemployment claims for last week … View More

The equity markets recovery continued last week led by a 2.96% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average followed by the S&P 500® Index (2.87%), Nasdaq (2.66%) and Russell 2000® Index (2.43%).  Corporate earnings season began last week with major financial institutions including Citigroup, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs; each posted earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations despite low trading revenues related to December’s severe volatility.  The companies believe t… View More

The equity market recovery continued this week as the oil price rebound, Federal Reserve comments regarding ‘patience’ in interest rate policies, and mid-level trade negotiations with China improved investor sentiment.  The lack of progress on the government shutdown, which on Saturday will become the longest in history, apparently did not influence market sentiment.  Fears of a recession subsided as the Russell 2000® Index led the markets with a 4.83% gain followed by Nasdaq (+3.45%); S… View More

Friday’s rally provided a welcomed start to the New Year as all of the major indices posted solid gains. For the week, the Russell 2000® Index (3.20%) led all of the major indices, followed by the Nasdaq (2.34%), S&P 500® Index (1.86%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.61%). Consumer sentiment rose on positive employment data, and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Friday’s release of the December employment report included 312,000 jobs in December, the largest month… View More

Each year our Friend  Bob Doll, who is Chief Equity Strategist & Senior Portfolio Manager at Nuveen asset management, gives his view on the new year.  His insights are very thoughtful and give us some insight to the year ahead.  Below are Bob’s comments for 2019 and how he believes the year will unfold in the Economy, markets and some insight to geopolitical events that could affect your portfolios. 2019: Choppy and frustrating, but no recession First a look back at a disappointing 20… View More

The equity markets certainly took investors on a wild ride in the holiday shortened week.  On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 650 points; on Wednesday, the markets rallied with the Dow gaining 1086 points, its largest one-day gain in history.  On Thursday, extreme volatility drove the Dow down over 600 points before reversing course to close up 260 points.  For the week, the major indices posted gains for the first time in December, the Nasdaq rebounded from bear market territ… View More

Today is a great example of the danger of trying to time the market.  In October, November, and December, investor sentiment began to sour, and the markets trended lower.  The S&P 500 sold off 19.8% from September 21, 2018 through December 24, 2018.  The Dow sold off 18.5% and the Nasdaq sold off 22.5% during the same period.  With market losses mounting, 2018 was beginning to feel a lot like 2008.  However, there are sharp contrasts between 2008 and 2018.   In 2008, the US (and glob… View More

The federal government is headed for a partial government shutdown that will likely last until January 3rd when the new Congress is sworn in. This is not the first time we have had a government shutdown through the holiday season, as we had one in 1995 when Bill Clinton was president. The major difference between today and 1995 is that this will be a “partial” shutdown with nearly 75 percent of the government already funded and completely unaffected by the shutdown. That leaves just 25 pe… View More