As many of you know, we have been following Bob Doll for over 20 years now. He put together a list of 10 things to consider during this Coronavirus outbreak. We thought it would worth your time to read his comments, which we have copied below. From his comments, we want to point out the underlying strength in the economy. While we will only know the full extent of what the Coronavirus will do after it is done, we do know that the US economy was about as well prepared for this as one could hope. … View More
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We understand the level of fear associated with both the Coronavirus and the market's sudden drop over the last few weeks. Further, we understand the feeling that this is a "new" crisis, the likes of which we've never seen before. In reality, Coronavirus is a new crisis, but that was also true of every crisis we have ever seen. We have been doing this a long time, and we have seen many crises come and go, each of them "new" and "unprecedented." In 1997, we faced the ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS. Debt… View More
Over the last few weeks, we’ve heard the comment a number of times that “the world has never seen something like Coronavirus,” and the reference is in relation to more than just the spread of the virus. The reference has been in relation to the market’s movements and to the economic impact the virus will take on the global economy. The genesis of these comments could be a variety of things. We have seen both record daily losses and record gains in the stock market. We have seen the swif… View More
We wanted to share a piece with you that was written by FirstTrust. We think their comments about how various virus's have impacted the markets over the years are worth considering. Please call or email us with any questions. Sincerely, Fortem Financialwww.fortemfin.com(760) 206-8500 Latest News Will We Have a Corona Virus Recession Read Story … View More
The latest news on the coronavirus and the Super Tuesday primaries caused wild market gyrations last week. Joe Biden’s unexpected primary wins gave him a delegate lead over Bernie Sanders. The coronavirus, however, overtook the Super Tuesday results. China reported a slowing rate of new cases (99 new cases reported on March 6th) for a total of 80,651. Globally, the case count rose to 101,927 with 3,488 deaths. Strategies to contain the virus have led to school closings, work-from-home policies… View More
Last week OPEC and Russia met to discuss cutting oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day; a move in response to slowing demand due to the Coronavirus outbreak in China. Russia decided NOT to participate in the cut, and in response, OPEC has "declared a price war" on Russia and has flooded the market with oil, increasing its production and causing a sharp drop in the price of oil (-30%). Historically, oil has been a proxy for the overall condition of the economy and stock market. This made… View More
The Fed decided to make an inter-meeting move and cut rates -50bp today. The size of the move, as well as the emergency decision, fit with a desire to respond forcibly to evolving market conditions. The FOMC statement read “the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 perce… View More
The equity markets tumbled last week on coronavirus fears; despite a late-Friday rally, all of the major indices fell more than 10% last week into correction territory. The worst performer, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, lost a record 3,500+ points (-12.36%), followed by the Russell 2000® Index (-12.04%), the S&P 500® Index (-11.49%) and the Nasdaq (-10.54%). The S&P 500® posted its worst weekly performance since the financial crisis. The decline from the Index’s record high on F… View More
We wanted to share with you some background on why we invest in balanced portfolios. During periods like February 19 through February 28, 2020, when the stock market comes under pressure, bonds tend to perform quite well. Over this period, the S&P 500 was down 12.4%, the Nasdaq was down 13.2%, and the Dow Jones was down 13.3%. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index however was up 1.6% during this period. Because of this inversely correlated relationship between stocks and fixed income, fixed inco… View More
We want to share a short note on our thoughts. With the coronavirus now above the fold of every national newspaper, the complacency that’s dominated markets over recent months is finally being challenged. This is also evident in the sharp ETF outflows – over the last 3 days, some $16bn has been pulled from the SPY and nearly $3bn from the HYG (both records). As we wrote yesterday, a decent chunk of the market is sufficiently oversold, but it takes more time to chip away at sentiment. With s… View More