Real interest rates appear too low for an economy growing solidly, with inflation accelerating. Numerous data series are supporting the idea that the U.S. is in the neighborhood of full employment, but with (still) emergency monetary policy. U.S. weekly jobless claims have likely been affected by seasonal adjustment issues in the past several weeks, but with the 4 week average trending significantly lower, the clear message is that the labor market continues to heal. With more than 11 million cu… View More
We continue to watch for updates on the global health situation, which will inform the policy response. “Initial data from a major hospital complex in South Africa’s omicron epicenter show that while Covid-19 case numbers have surged, patients need less medical intervention … Most originally sought treatment for ailments unrelated to the coronavirus and were discovered to have it in testing required for admission.” (Bloomberg) In the meantime, the U.S. economic data have shown momentum … View More
Late last week, President Biden announced he was going to release 55 million barrels of oil from our strategic oil reserve to combat high energy prices and inflation. Because we currently use 18mm Barrels of oil per day in the U.S. we are confident there will have to be further actions to solve the high price of oil (and its contributions to the inflation we have been seeing over the last few months). Although the announced policy attempts to bring down energy prices, we don't believe it will be… View More
There was a growth scare in 3Q (especially in the U.S. and China), but as we move through 4Q growth looks to be reaccelerating. Yet price gains are continuing. U.K. CPI inflation rose to 4.2% y/y in Oct. The stagflation scare has morphed into a “sticky” inflation concern in numerous locations. “A trio of policy makers – Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard – signaled … that the topic of a faster taper m… View More
We came across an interesting article from one of our research providers this week and thought we would share it with you. This piece makes an interesting argument for why commodities and materials may be among the better performing investments for the next few years. Although so much of the media’s coverage these days seems to focus on social unrest or geopolitical conflict, there are still nuggets of information that may help identify investment opportunities. Since the start of quantitativ… View More