In our Monday reports, we always strive to first highlight what is most important for clients, but frankly, we debated what exactly that should be this morning. There was a long list of contenders… the breakout in global yields, the subtle weakness in USD, the momentum surge from the Banks, the strength out of the Energy stocks, the outperformance of Staples vs. Discretionary, the weakness in Software, the persistent selling of the market’s most speculative corners, or the breakdown in small… View More
S&P 500 Finishes 2021 Up 28.7% With the S&P 500 finishing the year up 28.7% on a total return basis, 2021 ranked as the 21st best year for the index since 1926. It was also the 36th time that the total return was greater than 20%. More importantly, in the year following a +20% return, the S&P on average has returned 11.3%, with 69% of the readings being positive. 2021 Saw The Fourth Smallest Drawdown Since 1987 For The S&P Those investors who entered 2021 with a bearish outloo… View More
Sunday morning Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he will not support President Biden’s Build Back Better spending and tax package as is currently written. This is a major event that has broad investment implications from taxes on high-net-worth individuals to global companies to sectors such as renewable energy, healthcare, and consumer discretionary. In our experience, sometimes legislation has to fail before it can succeed. Obamacare died three times before ultimately passing. But the ta… View More
A Reminder on Charitable Gifting As the end of the year and the holiday season approaches, we will all see an uptick in the number of charitable solicitations arriving in our mailboxes and by email. Since some charities sell their contributor lists to other charities, and frequent contributors may find themselves besieged by requests from all sorts of charities with which they are not familiar. Watch Out for Charity Scams – You need to be careful, as scammers out there are pretending to be l… View More
Real interest rates appear too low for an economy growing solidly, with inflation accelerating. Numerous data series are supporting the idea that the U.S. is in the neighborhood of full employment, but with (still) emergency monetary policy. U.S. weekly jobless claims have likely been affected by seasonal adjustment issues in the past several weeks, but with the 4 week average trending significantly lower, the clear message is that the labor market continues to heal. With more than 11 million cu… View More