The stagflation scare continues. Economic bottlenecks are lasting longer than expected. There have been new disruptions in the third quarter (eg, harsh weather, new auto plant shutdowns). The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence fell in August. U.S. vehicle sales plunged again to a 13.1 million SAAR. We’re lowering our forecast for U.S. real GDP growth in the third quarter to 2% q/q A.R. from 4.8% previously. We’re relying on inventory rebuilding to contribute to growth, as consum… View More
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Mark Twain. To be honest, we are not particularly big fans of relying on seasonal patterns, especially in an environment when policymakers are breaking all the rules. Every snap either seems to be an audible or a broken play. Still, we believe we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that, since 1950,… View More
Good morning. We hope everyone is enjoying their summer. With the summer coming to a close, we see a growing number of client questions on policy issues impacting financial markets. Below we outline the latest state of play on the bipartisan infrastructure package, the $3.5 trillion spending budget and legislation, a potential government shutdown, the debt ceiling, and the reappointment of Fed Chairman Jay Powell. The recent news from Afghanistan, notwithstanding its geopolitical implications, … View More
Liquidity Growth Slowing Along With S&P Rate Of Change The growth in M2 has been slowing for several months now, and it should come as no surprise that the rate of change in the S&P is slowing as well. This is very typical at this point in the recovery as we lap the months where liquidity was injected, and the S&P rose from the lows following the crisis. As we have stated in the past, returns are more challenging in year two and year three following a bear market. Earnings Growth T… View More
The Senate just passed a new 2,700 page $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. From the Senate, the bill moves to the House where Speaker Pelosi has suggested she will not take up the bill until Senate Democrats pass a separate (and much more expensive) package without GOP votes under a budget reconciliation process. Because this bill includes the largest tax increases since 1968 (nearly three times the size of the tax increases enacted by Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Obama), we feel it is im… View More