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Perspectives

Earnings season is in the books and it is hard to argue the economy needs more stimulus

by Fortem Financial June 7, 2021

87.5% of Companies Beat Earnings Estimates in 1Q’21 With 99% of the S&P 500 having reported, it’s fair to say that 1Q’21 was a blowout season for earnings. 87.5% of companies beat their earnings estimates for the quarter, a record high going back to the mid-1990s and well above the long-term historical average of 65%. 2021 EPS Growth Revising Up, 2022 Revising Down The S&P 500’s 2021 estimated EPS growth began the year at 23.3% and, with the help of robust earnings numbers fro… View More

GDP is much better than anyone is saying but Stimulus will keep us going through the summer and beyond possibly causing more than transitory inflation

by Fortem Financial June 1, 2021

Stimulus-boosted demand is still outpacing supply. The Atlanta Fed’s tracking estimate for U.S. 2Q real GDP is at 9.3% q/q annualized. Consumption should shift from goods to services over the next several quarters (pent-up demand). In the meantime we have inflation. U.S. core PCE inflation was 3.1% y/y in April. Central bankers have labeled price moves as transitory, but this position is likely to be challenged in the near-term given continued bottlenecks. U of Michigan surveys of inflation ex… View More

Economy is recovering much faster than expected. The current risk is over stimulation.

by Fortem Financial May 25, 2021

Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, said last week that "we have a lot of work to do (to raise inflation) … This narrative of a new inflation environment, I just put very little weight on it" (Reuters). Global central bankers are sticking by their models. But this is likely to get more difficult as the year progresses. The duration & composition of inflation (rather than the number we pop up to) is important for monetary policymakers. But different data may matter for investors (espe… View More

Trying to look forward to Q2 earnings is not so easy

by Fortem Financial May 17, 2021

With 90% Reported Earnings Growth Still Greater Than 50% For 1Q With 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings thus far, earning growth for 1Q is still expected to be greater than 50%, while revenue growth is near 13%. We do not anticipate any material changes this upcoming week and expect most investors to begin thinking about 2Q and beyond. 2Q Earnings Growth Expected To Be Just As Strong Currently, the second-quarter earnings season is expected to see earnings growth just as strong a… View More

Inflation Surges to 4.2% - Should we be worried?

by Fortem Financial May 12, 2021

The big headline is that year-over-year inflation came in at +4.2%. What the headline leaves out is that inflation hit a period low in May 2020, meaning much of the inflation data we are seeing now is simply “catching up” to where things would have been if we had never had the 2020 recession. It also fails to mention that inflation almost ALWAYS runs higher during the recovery from a recessionary period. Summary: More often than not, stocks appreciate in an inflationary environment Cash l… View More

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