The next several months are likely to test the resolve of the Federal Reserve to maintain its “all in” support. U.S. policymakers continue to target employment. There’s still some labor market slack, but the U.S. economy is picking up quickly now. U.S. mobility measures have already been increasing (ahead of herd immunity). This trajectory remains consistent with timely industry data (eg, TSA travel statistics, restaurant reservations). The Conference Board measure of U.S. consumer confid… View More
2020 will be a year we will all remember. Not only was it the year the global economy was abruptly shut down for the Covid-19 Pandemic, but it was also the year we saw the biggest (by a very large margin) fiscal and monetary stimulus ever. So far, it looks like 2021 is another year we will never forget. The fiscal and monetary stimulus numbers in 2020 are bigger than they were in 2021, and the proposed tax increase to pay for it all will be the biggest tax increase since 1968. On March 31, 2021… View More
We recognize that we may occasionally add to the cacophony of market commentary from time-to-time. Here, in one place, we wanted to present what we believe are the most important facts and our current opinions. FACTS Consumer net worth was, remarkably, up 10% in 2020 and is now at an all-time high at $130 trillion Personal savings is roughly $1.3 trillion greater today than it was one year ago The $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package is about 9% of nominal GDP; more than $1 trillion will be… View More
Tomorrow marks the 1-year anniversary of the 3/23/20 market low. Roughly +75% later, the only historical comps even in the ballpark are the first 12 months off the 1982 low (+58%) and the first 12 months off the 2009 low (+69%). One of our themes over the last year has been, unique crisis / ordinary market, and in that spirit, we want to reemphasize how different year 2 off the low looks typically looks compared to year 1… performance tends to be more in line with historical averages and it’… View More
We hope you all had a great weekend. We wanted to share with you an email that a good client of ours sent this weekend. He wrote that we probably know all of this, but he found it fascinating and an easy read. He wrote that he finally understands where we are at and why the markets keep going higher. The article he sent was entitled “Americans have never been RICHER” and the introduction went like this. Contrary to what the media will have you believe, the U.S. Consumer is actually in exce… View More