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Perspectives

Earnings, Revenues, GDP and Inflation all run hot and still no raise in interest rates in the near future

by Fortem Financial August 2, 2021

Bottlenecks have been larger than anticipated. Inflation is starting to register on the D.C. political radar, but a wait-and-see approach is still favored. U.S. inflation is (still) viewed as transitory. Recent U.S. bond market moves have not scared the Fed. The 10-year Treasury finished last week at 1.22%. As we noted last week, the rise in inflation is pushing down real (inflation-adjusted) spending & GDP growth. U.S. nominal GDP was +13% q/q A.R. in 2Q, but inflation was 6%. Consumer sp… View More

Review of Q2 Earnings

by Fortem Financial July 26, 2021

Despite some challenges, 2Q economic growth looks solid. 3Q is more of a question mark. The rise in inflation is pushing down real (inflation-adjusted) spending & GDP growth (the core CPI rose at an 8.1% q/q annualized rate in 2Q). Rents are starting to rise. Supply-chain bottlenecks could last longer than expected, especially given uneven global vaccine distribution & effectiveness. If there is hesitation to re-open schools for the next academic year, labor force participation could re… View More

Gundlach Sees Stocks As 'Cheap' Compared To Bonds

by Fortem Financial July 19, 2021

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has been touted as the top fixed income manager for more than a decade now. Not all of his calls are 100% correct but he is right more than wrong and when he is wrong, he is not afraid to admit it. Six months ago, Gundlach told CNBC that he thought stocks were very expensive. Today, they are about 15% higher. When asked by CNBC’s Scott Wapner what he thought of equity prices yesterday, he acknowledged they were very expensive. But the “biggest case for stock… View More

Liquidity, Earnings and Sentiment (LES)

by Fortem Financial July 19, 2021

On July 9th we suggested that the bull market wasn’t over but that it was due for a breather due to already high expectations for earnings and market performance and the not insignificant chance that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was telling us something. With the preannouncement ratio below 1, there remains little room for error during the reporting season. Today we present more evidence for this point of view with our regular monitoring of our LES Model. We developed the measure abo… View More

The market trades on earnings

by Fortem Financial July 12, 2021

Earnings for the S&P 500 are poised to be up more than 60% y/y when the second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week. This will be the second greatest increase in earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2009, when profits rose +108.9%. While there are a number of heavy cyclical companies that will post significant earnings gains versus the pre-pandemic levels established in 2019, those companies hardest hit from the pandemic lockdowns - like air travel, leisure, and entertainment â… View More

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