We continue to watch for updates on the global health situation, which will inform the policy response. “Initial data from a major hospital complex in South Africa’s omicron epicenter show that while Covid-19 case numbers have surged, patients need less medical intervention … Most originally sought treatment for ailments unrelated to the coronavirus and were discovered to have it in testing required for admission.” (Bloomberg) In the meantime, the U.S. economic data have shown momentum … View More
Late last week, President Biden announced he was going to release 55 million barrels of oil from our strategic oil reserve to combat high energy prices and inflation. Because we currently use 18mm Barrels of oil per day in the U.S. we are confident there will have to be further actions to solve the high price of oil (and its contributions to the inflation we have been seeing over the last few months). Although the announced policy attempts to bring down energy prices, we don't believe it will be… View More
There was a growth scare in 3Q (especially in the U.S. and China), but as we move through 4Q growth looks to be reaccelerating. Yet price gains are continuing. U.K. CPI inflation rose to 4.2% y/y in Oct. The stagflation scare has morphed into a “sticky” inflation concern in numerous locations. “A trio of policy makers – Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard – signaled … that the topic of a faster taper m… View More
We came across an interesting article from one of our research providers this week and thought we would share it with you. This piece makes an interesting argument for why commodities and materials may be among the better performing investments for the next few years. Although so much of the media’s coverage these days seems to focus on social unrest or geopolitical conflict, there are still nuggets of information that may help identify investment opportunities. Since the start of quantitativ… View More
We believe we are seeing the peak in the 2021 stagflation scare, with the 3Q data reports from the U.S. last week & the weak China manufacturing PMI in Oct. There’s still plenty to worry about, as growth has stalled & bottlenecks keep inflation elevated. Wage pressures are building. Energy prices remain elevated. Yet these stories are becoming well known. There are key positives for economic growth. European 3Q GDP data was solid q/q. The U.S. yield curve is not inverted & consume… View More