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Perspectives

Q3 Earnings and Stagflation

by Fortem Financial October 19, 2021

We may be approaching “peak bottleneck”. The Atlanta Fed’s tracking estimate for U.S. real GDP in 3Q is down to 1.2% q/q A.R. Separately, U of Mich consumer sentiment remained depressed at 71.4 in October. Yet, we are seeing early signs that the global production & transportation situation, while not close to being solved, may finally be turning. U.S. initial jobless claims falling to 293,000 last week suggest an inflection. This doesn’t make the inflation we’re seeing now (eg, Sep… View More

Stagflation and Q3 earnings on the menu for this week

by Fortem Financial October 11, 2021

Given bottlenecks and supply constraints, we are continuing to see a stagflation scare (weaker growth + sticky inflation) in the global economy. Concerns are likely to persist into 2022. But as firms change the way they do business to combat this issue, output-per-hour (productivity) gains are starting to occur. Productivity allows the opposite of stagflation: stronger growth and muted inflation since there are more goods & services produced. Put another way, straining the economy in ways it… View More

Outside of reconciliation, the only way the debt ceiling gets resolved is if one party caves, which is never easy to do

by Fortem Financial October 4, 2021

DEMOCRATIC DIVISIONS OVER THE SPENDING PACKAGE EXPLODED OVER THE WEEKEND Last Thursday Strategas (one of our research partners) outlined all of the troubles Democrats were having in moving their agenda forward and that the infrastructure vote was likely to be delayed. The delay of the infrastructure package did materialize but during that process, we saw a level of optimism emanating from Congressional leadership that a deal could take place on Friday. Senator Manchin put out his price tag Thur… View More

Inflation - Yes or No?

by Fortem Financial October 1, 2021

With inflation a key concern for most investors, we wanted to share a paper we read this week written by Bob Doll at Crossmark Global Investments. We thought it was a great review of what is happening with inflation now. Read Story   … View More

Is this the start of stagflation like we saw in the 70’s?

by Fortem Financial September 27, 2021

Global supply chain struggles have persisted in 3Q, and look set to linger for at least several more quarters. Energy prices have surged in Europe, and transportation issues are creating petrol lines in the U.K. Data from China have shown notable disruptions, though fears of financial contagion came and went quickly last week. “U.S. shipping operations remain clogged as ports, truckers and warehouses can’t find enough workers or agree on 24/7 operations … Tens of thousands of containers a… View More

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