Q4 earnings season continued to prove mediocre

U.S. equities finished last week mostly higher (S&P 500 +0.8%), coming off intraweek lows and rallying strongly on Friday. The S&P 500 moved into double-digit percentage loss territory several times before the end of the week rally. The market reacted negatively to the FOMC meeting, judging that the recent hawkish Fed repricing has more room to run. The Q4 earnings season also continued to prove mediocre, with supply disruptions and cost pressures showing up in too many reports. Best sec… View More

TIGHTER FISCAL & MONETARY POLICY IN A MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR, WHICH TENDS TO BE MORE VOLATILE

As we have mentioned over the last few months, we expect market volatility to increase in 2022. There are a number of reasons for our concern such as the long running bull market, real Inflation for the first time in more than 20 years and rising interest rates. Maybe our largest concern was the midterm elections while our other concerns are playing out. Midterm elections tend to have larger equity market corrections compared to non-midterm election years with an average intra-year decline of 19… View More

Week One Of Earnings Season Was Very Underwhelming and we have a Russia Problem…

The first quarter of 2022 is slowing. There’s a clear shock to demand (eg, closures for schools, flights, cruises, etc). U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 286,000 in the Jan 15th week, with existing home sales dipping -4.6% m/m in Dec. However, not all the U.S. data were negative, with the Philly Fed index rising to 23.2 in Jan (offsetting the plunge in the NY Fed manufacturing index earlier in the week). Housing starts rose month over month in Dec and the NAHB housing market index remained … View More

QUANTITIVE TIGHTENING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR ASSET PRICES AND INFLATION

Increased Market volatility absolutely has to do with inflation and all eyes are looking on how the Fed can catch up from recent mistakes. It has been claimed that the first casualty in any war is the truth. In the fullness of time, historians of future generations will be charged with determining whether this maxim was accurate when it came to the all-out war waged by policymakers against COVID-19. Certainly, in addition to the tragic loss of life due to the virus, there have been other public … View More

4Q Earnings start to roll out and things could be choppy

4Q Earnings Season Could Be Choppy If Friday was any indication of how the earnings season will pan out, it could be a choppy one for investors. Earnings growth is largely expected to be robust along with sales growth. However, the headline figures are deceiving because energy is expected to recover significantly, propping up the S&P figure. Ex. Energy earnings growth is expected to be closer to 15% - still a respectable number. NTM EPS Still Marching Higher From a macro perspective, we w… View More

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