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10 THINGS TO CONSIDER AFTER FRIDAY'S SELL-OFF

by Fortem Financial June 13, 2022

As they say, there are two types of economists – those who don’t know and those who don’t know, they don’t know. We’re making educated guesses just like everyone else. But here are some impressions we think are worth considering after Friday’s surprise CPI report and market sell-off: Theoretically, it is difficult to get control of inflation until the Fed Funds rate is above the inflation rate. Using any inflation measure one might choose, the Fed has likely only just begun its tigh… View More

No hurricane yet, but still too much money floating around

by Fortem Financial June 6, 2022

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon caused a stir lately when he talked about a "hurricane" hitting the US economy. We think he may eventually be right, but is way too early. The employment report for May confirmed that the US economy continues to grow. Both major measures of jobs went up in May: nonfarm payrolls rose 390,000, while civilian employment increased 321,000. Total hours worked expanded 0.3%. Has a recession already started? Certainly not. Notably, there is some evidence of a transition in t… View More

A Welcome Pause that Refreshes

by Fortem Financial May 31, 2022

Stocks were sharply higher (S&P 500 +6.6%), breaking the multi-week downward trend. As we covered in recent weeks, stocks rallied on a large oversold condition and extremely negative sentiment. The best sectors were consumer discretionary (+9.3%), energy (+8.2%), technology (+8.1%), and financials (+8.1%); the worst sectors were healthcare (+3.3%) and communication services (+3.6%). What we’ve found notable about the market’s rally over the last week is that it hasn’t put any dent in … View More

Earnings Concerns Keep Market Heavy, but a Rally Likely Soon

by Fortem Financial May 23, 2022

U.S. equities fell (-3.0% for the S&P 500) for the seventh straight week. The DJIA fell for the eighth week in a row, the longest losing streak since 1923. The S&P 500 briefly dipped into 20+% decline territory, the traditional definition of a bear market. Multiple bearish themes dominated the dialogue. Three sectors were up for the week: energy (+1.4%), healthcare (+0.9%), and utilities (+0.4%); worst sectors were consumer staples (-8.6%) and consumer discretionary (-7.4%). The Federal… View More

Q1 Earnings update…Time For An Oversold Stock And Bond Rally?

by Fortem Financial May 17, 2022

U.S. equities were lower last week (S&P 500 -2.4%) for the sixth straight week (the longest stretch in over ten years). During the midweek selloff, the S&P 500 hit the lowest point since March 2021 and the NASDAQ since November 2020. The bearish case for equities focused on monetary tightening, persistent inflation, China COVID lockdowns, recession fears, and extended valuations. The only positive sector for the week was consumer staples (+0.3%); the worst sectors were REITs (-3.9%) and … View More

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Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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