Perspectives

Just reaching an agreement was the first step. Now the US Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) process will kick in. By the end of 2018, we expect the International Trade Commission to issue a report for Congress detailing the economic impact of the renegotiated NAFTA agreement. The purpose of this report is to be informative for members of Congress before they vote. We have no idea how the report may score the benefits of enhanced intellectual property protection and the new financial services rules… View More

As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday. And at this point, the outlook for the remainder 2018 looks largely determined, with both 75% of Fed officials and the markets pricing in one more rate hike in December to make it four for the year. What remains to be seen – and the focus for many with yesterday's release – is how policy will develop in 2019 and beyond. The only substantive change in yesterday's statement was the removal of a sentence noting the sta… View More

Trade tensions continued to dominate the headlines; on Monday, the U.S. imposed an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods.  The tariffs will rise to 25% on January 1st in the absence of a trade agreement.  Despite the announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.25% while the S&P 500® Index gained 0.85% while the Nasdaq fell 0.29%, the Russell 2000® Index fell 0.55%.  The Dow and S&P 500® both posted record highs on Thursday as the longest bull market on r… View More

Significant headline news events were in short supply last week yet the major indices moved higher which has been the path of least resistance.  For the week, large caps outpaced small cap stocks; the market leading Nasdaq rose 1.36%, followed by the S&P 500® Index (1.16%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.92%) and the Russell 2000® Index (0.50%).  Economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index, continue to support the markets.  The Index’s 100.8 reading for August is the seco… View More

September began with across-the-board declines in response to uncertainties related to trade tariffs with China and the NAFTA negotiations with Canada.  Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the markets with a fractional 0.19% loss; the S&P 500® Index declined 1.03%, the Nasdaq fell 2.55% and the Russell 2000® Index lost 1.58%. On Wednesday, trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada resumed but the parties had not reached an agreement as the week ended; the pressure builds… View More

NAFTA negotiators remain upbeat about the prospects of a deal. This will be an "agreement in principle" rather than a full deal which means that while it won't be signed, it can still trigger the formal Congressional review so that Mexico's current President is able to sign it before his term ends and he leaves office. However, on Friday, negotiations between the U.S. and Canada appear stalled in meeting the White House’s imposed deadline. Even so, President Trump plans to notify Congress o… View More

Last week you heard a lot about the longest bull market in our countries history. The Purest definition of a bull market is “a market advance without a pull back or sell of greater than 20%”. We do not necessarily agree with the "longest bull market" headlines from last week. Both 2011 and 2015 witnessed massive drawdowns at the stock level with over 70% of issues down 20% in 2011 and 63% during 2015. The Russell 2000 was down by 30% and 27% in each respective year and global equities also e… View More

The major indices, with the exception of the Nasdaq, ended higher for the week despite heightened volatility.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.41%; the S&P 500® and the Russell 2000® Indices rose .59% and .36%, respectively.  The Nasdaq’s -.29% decline was due, in part, to a sell-off in Tesla; the company disclosed an SEC subpoena of directors following the tweet from CEO Elon Musk about a pending deal to take the company private; the SEC was already investigating potentially m… View More

Small and Mid-Cap companies have been the best performing sector of the market this year and last week was no exception. The Russell 2000® Index, last week’s best performer, rose 0.80% followed by the Nasdaq which gained 0.35%.  The S&P 500® Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.25% and 0.59%, respectively.  Small cap stocks continued to perform well; strong earnings reports and upwardly revised guidance supported the momentum provided by the economy.  A survey among econo… View More

With the mid-term elections approaching, an ongoing tariff war with China, and an apparent soft patch in Europe, we continue to ask ourselves the question of whether we’re on track for the longest expansion in U.S. History or at the end of the road. To help answer this question, we look at various economic data points to understand the US economy’s trajectory.  During the month of June, we saw robust employment gains in the US with 213,000 new jobs.  Coupled with the growth in jobs, US wa… View More