With just less than 40% of S&P 500 companies reporting for the 4Q earnings season, results continue to come in quite strong. Estimated sales growth flipped positive for the overall index, and earnings growth is now estimated to be down only -1.6% led by the Technology and Financial sectors. The energy and industrial sectors continue to be the biggest laggards. Greater than 80% of companies are beating estimates for the 3rd quarter in a row, more than 80% of companies reporting have beaten ea… View More
Because we have been getting a lot of inquiries about Gamestop (GME), AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), Express (EXPR), and other such companies, we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the risks involved with trading these names now. We believe that the volatility and risk associated with these stocks are just too great to take any type of position (long or short). The market is a sophisticated "barter" system. It matches buyers and sellers in real-time. Like any other market, when demand … View More
Saving and fiscal stimulus are providing income replacement, so we see no cascading financial crisis. Also, productivity gains and inventory rebuilding argue for a boost to growth in 2021. The Blue Chip consensus U.S. real GDP forecast is 4.2% for 2021; we believe up to 6% is likely. Growth in China has also been a key support for global economic activity in 2021. Manufacturing has performed well (goods > services) in the global economy. For this reason, rising COVID-19 case counts in China … View More
Stocks closed lower on Friday as President Elect Biden released plans for a $1.9 trillion dollar COVID-19 relief package. On Friday, tech shares gained while banks led the decline of financial stocks after some of the largest players released less than stellar earnings reports. This short-term selloff goes against the long upward trend for stocks. The S&P 500 hit a record high during the first week of the year, only to fade slightly last week. Energy stocks led the market last week as oil pr… View More
We have received a number of questions from clients on what we can expect with the new Administration in Washington. Potential tax increases have been the number one question from clients over the past week. We see fiscal stimulus coming in two parts, with the first package focused on income replacement which can pass by the end of February. The second package, which will likely be considered mid-year, is a more complicated legislative vehicle, focused on long-term structural changes to the US e… View More