Perspectives

January was an impressive month to say the least.  The return of the S&P 500 was +5.65%, which is the best January since 1997, and the fifth best January since 1980.  With the market reaching new highs during this, the second longest bull run on record, many investors are wondering if now is the time to take their gains and get out of the market.  The equally strong pullback in the first week of February is adding to some investors’ concern.  This month, we want to address this questio… View More

There has been a lot of discussion about the stock market’s losses over the last week, the rise in interest rates, climbing inflation, and of course the “sharp” increase in volatility.  We wanted to put these items into historical context.  The charts below begin on January 19, 1993.  We chose this day because it’s the day the Chicago Board Option Exchange introduced the VIX (the Volatility Index).  We have broken down the various data points into multiple charts to make it easier to… View More

Stocks declined across the board last week leaving clients to ask is this still a healthy market? Last week was the first 5% pullback we have seen in the equity markets since January of 2016.  A better-than-expected jobs report sent interest rates higher which, in turn, triggered Friday?s sharp selloff; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 666 points, a 2.54% decline.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Note rose 0.18% this week, to 2.84%, from 2.40% at the end of December and… View More

We know the question many are asking is "Are we at the end of the bull market yet."  We don't think so, and wanted to share some facts to support that statement: The Atlanta Fed is now projecting real GDP growth at a 5.4% annual rate in the first quarter, which would be thefastest growth for any quarter since 2003. We think that's on the optimistic side and expect growth at more like a 4.0% annual rate, but, either way, the economy is showing signs of an overdue acceleration and we are now p… View More

Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase, three of America?s largest companies, announced plans today to start a separate, non-profit company with the goal of improving health care for their U.S. employees. Warren Buffett said in a statement that the three companies do "not come to this problem with answers. But we also do not accept it as inevitable.? This announcement, albeit with vague details, caused shares of companies across the health care industry, from health insurers, to distribu… View More

The market rally continued last week with the end of the government shutdown on Monday and as strong corporate earnings and economic data recharged bullish sentiment.  All of the major indices closed at record highs; yet, investors continued to favor large cap stocks over smaller company shares.  Treasury yields stabilized after rising by roughly 0.25% year-to-date.  One might describe these conditions as a ?Goldilocks? environment: the rate of economic growth is sufficient to support risi… View More

Stocks rose during a volatile week last week as concerns over a potential government shutdown and rising interest rates weighed on investor sentiment.  Investors have temporarily retreated from riskier areas of the market: sectors that had been performing well over the past few weeks, such as Energy and Industrials, lagged while Consumer Staples (including food, beverages, and household products), Health Care, and Technology outperformed.  Also, large cap stocks outpaced small caps.  The gov… View More

Markets continued their strong start to the New Year with another 500+ point advance in the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week breaking through DOW 26k today.  Improving fundamentals for the global economy, and corporations, are buoying investor confidence; weekly inflows into global equity markets hit a six-month high.  Small cap value stocks outpaced large cap growth stocks; the market?s preference for small caps indicates that investors are starting to look for returns outside of popu… View More

2017 was a great year for the markets and the overall economy.  Looking forward to what we may expect in 2018, the data so far seems to suggest there is still room for the economy (and markets) to continue their expansion.  Some of the things we are watching are: Since congress passed the tax bill, 85 (and counting) US companies have announced new bonuses for their employees or that they are increasing their employees’ benefits The New York Fed’s underlying inflation gauge stands at 2.95… View More

As the New Year begins, investors are beginning to assess the impact of tax reform on corporate earnings and growth estimates.The IRS will issue guidance in mid-January which will allow for worker paychecks to be adjusted for lower taxes (and higher take-home pay) by February. This is akin to giving nearly every worker in America a raise at the same time. The last time paychecks adjusted for lower taxes in 2003 growth and yields surged. Additionally, nearly 80 companies have publicly announced i… View More