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Higher growth expectations should keep the bull market moving forward

by Fortem Financial April 23, 2018

1Q earnings are in full swing and growth expectations heading into the reporting period increased from 12.2% on December 31st to 18.5% currently. Normally, expectations get whittled down during the quarter and then earnings post a modest surprise off depressed expectations. With the earnings preannouncement ratio exceptionally low, stocks may be priced for perfection. However, earnings growth is expected to accelerate even further in the coming quarters as companies report better top-line grow… View More

Earnings Season Finally Begins for Q1

by Fortem Financial April 17, 2018

Markets rebounded this week as trade tensions eased.  China’s President Xi Jinping’s speech this week at the Boao Forum reiterated past promises to increase imports, reduce import duties on automobiles, expand access to the country’s financial sector, and enforce intellectual property rights for foreign firms.  Investors also responded positively to the prospect of a negotiated resolution to the tariff dispute; reports revealed that the U.S. and China had engaged in (unsuccessful) trade … View More

Trade Wars... or Not?

by Fortem Financial April 10, 2018

With all the talk about China, we wanted to share the attached article from Reuters. Since the first mention of tariffs, we've said that we DO NOT believe we will end up in a full blown trade war with China. It would not be in China's or our best interest.  We've also cited multiple examples of both sides rolling their threats back after they were made. Below, we've included an article that again reiterates to us that much of what we're seeing may simply be posturing. Trump wants to appear st… View More

It has been a rough ride… but calmer seas should be on the horizon

by Fortem Financial April 9, 2018

Markets declined last week as the trade dispute between the U.S. and China flared.  On Monday, China provided a detailed list of tariffs on 128 U.S. products; the announcement was targeted retaliation for the 25% tariff on steel and 10% tariff on aluminum exports previously announced by President Trump.  On Wednesday, the U.S. released a list of proposed tariffs on approximately $50 billion of Chinese imports, including medicine, aviation parts, and semiconductors.  China responded with plans… View More

April 2018 Market Update

by Fortem Financial April 9, 2018

Looking at March, we observed 43% of its trading days experienced a spread of greater than 400 points between the day’s high and low.  With spread between the market’s high and low at 743 points on March 1st and 737 points on March 27th, it’s apparent market volatility has returned.  The VIX (volatility index) measured 19.97 (slightly ahead of its 20-year average of 19.4) on the last trading day of March.  From reports published by the Investment Company Institute (ICI), we can see mon… View More

Volatility Continues, but Last Week's Reversal is a Good Sign

by Fortem Financial April 2, 2018

We are hearing more investors comment that the market makes no sense, at least for now.  Today's selloff erasing Friday's gains only reinforces this idea for many.  We would contend the market does make sense, and what we've experienced over the last couple of months reaffirms the market's sensibility.  As January came to a close, Amazon, JP Morgan, and Berkshire Hathaway announced they were going to get into the healthcare business.  This introduced a level of uncertainty in the markets.… View More

Update on Recent Market Volatility

by Fortem Financial March 28, 2018

We are still about three weeks away from First Quarter Earnings announcements.  In absence of any real fundamental data the market will trade from day to day on current headlines. Over the last few years, the market has shrugged off the headlines knowing the economy was still growing and the Fed would protect that growth.  As we get further through the business cycle, the markets are paying closer attention to news headlines and as of late,  there has been plenty of news to make the markets… View More

Renegotiating and Regulations spook the markets

by Fortem Financial March 26, 2018

The major indices fell by the largest percentages in two years last week as investors feared a trade war between the U.S. and China.  The Nasdaq was the worst performer among the major indices, declining 6.5%.  Facebook fell 13.8% (roughly $75 billion in market value) following revelations that the political data analytics firm Cambridge Analytica, which had been given access to profiles of over 50 million users, had used the data, without permission, for political advertising campaigns.  An… View More

Don’t fear volatility from Facebook and tariffs

by Fortem Financial March 22, 2018

The revelation that Facebook and other high flying Tech companies may face regulation like the mere mortal companies has shaken the Tech sector this week. Facebook is down more than 35% from its high a few months ago and its poor performance is dragging down the FANG Stocks.  Remember the F in FANG is Facebook. Add to that new Tariff announcements on China and you come up with headline risk which is what is affecting the markets as of late. Many investors have a phobia when it comes to volatil… View More

The Jerome Powell Federal Reserve: A New Era

by Fortem Financial March 20, 2018

In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, a 16th seed has never, ever, beaten a one seed...until this year. But, on Friday, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) beat the University of Virginia – not just a number one seed, but the top ranked team in the USA. We don't expect the unexpected, however, when the Federal Reserve finishes its regularly scheduled meeting on Wednesday.Based on the federal funds futures market, there is a 100% chance that the Fed will boost the f… View More

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