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Fortem Financial

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Market continues to expect positive economic surprise in the months ahead

by Fortem Financial August 25, 2020

The perceived disconnect between the strength in equity markets vs. the current standing of the economy remains – without hesitation – the primary source of anxiety among investors. We continue to think about this a little bit differently than the consensus… specifically, the quiet leadership from the more cyclical corners of the market may be more suggestive of a positive economic surprise in the months ahead. Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples (equally weighted), is on the cusp … View More

Market rotation continues as the most beaten up names do well on improving Coronavirus numbers

by Fortem Financial August 17, 2020

Last week, equities were positive as value names led the way. The S&P 500 index was up 0.69% while the S&P 500 Value index was up 0.91% and the S&P 500 Growth index returned 0.55%. Top performers in the S&P 500 index were cruise providers Royal Caribbean Cruises LTD and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings along with gaming/hotel titans Wynn Resorts LTD and MGM Resorts International. These names benefitted from the 7-day average positive COVID19 tests falling to 54,503 on Friday, down … View More

Markets continue to rally while some benefits will continue to assist Americans hurt by the Coronavirus

by Fortem Financial August 10, 2020

Equities continued to move higher amid uncertainty around an extension of unemployment benefits and continued tensions with China. As of the close of markets on Friday, an agreement between the House Democrats and Senate Republicans on a new round of federal stimulus is still trillions apart. On Saturday after negotiations failed to yield any results, President Trump followed through on his promise to issue executive orders after the collapse of stimulus negotiations with Democrats by: 1) Alloc… View More

Market rallies last week as earnings come in strong. Record Plunge in US GDP aligns with the rest of the world.

by Fortem Financial August 3, 2020

Last week, equities were positive as mega-cap technology stocks led the way with a slew of strong quarterly earnings announcements. The S&P 500 index rallied 1.5% while the Nasdaq Composite index was up 3.5%. Looking ahead to next week, Bloomberg expects 133 names in the S&P 500 index to announce quarterly results. As earnings season continues, equity markets look to learn more about how much COVID shutdowns are harming U.S. companies. U.S. real GDP plunged in 2Q, falling at a post-war… View More

Stock Market down slightly for the first time in three weeks. Oil moving higher with increased demand.

by Fortem Financial July 27, 2020

The S&P 500 Index declined 27 basis points last week after three straight weeks of gains. The index is currently up 3.82% in July which has helped push it back into positive territory for 2020 after the February-March steep market decline. Equities were up early in the week, but reversed course on Thursday with information technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services being the hardest hit sectors. Negative jobs data, along with increasing COVID-19 cases causing a decline in… View More

For the first time ever, could raising taxes be a winning campaign strategy in 2020? Earnings coming in as expected with few surprises

by Fortem Financial July 20, 2020

As we get closer to the election, the political landscape is heating up. President Trump is defending his administration's handling of Covid-19 and focusing on how strong the economy was pre-COVID-19 as well as how it's recovering post-COVID-19. Joe Biden is sharing his plans for sweeping reforms in Energy, Healthcare, and Education. In order for Biden to implement the changes he is outlining, he will have to raise taxes across the board. Given the state of the economy, it's interesting to be s… View More

New Covid-19 cases higher... Market continues higher waiting for Q2 earnings…are higher taxes really a winning strategy?

by Fortem Financial July 13, 2020

A recurring question we hear is, "How can the market continue to move higher with all of the new documented cases of Covid-19?" We believe currently available data provides valuable insight into why stocks may keep pushing higher, suggesting we may be able to balance the scales between health risks and economic risks. The first and second chart highlight that despite the increase in daily reported cases of Covid-19, the death rate has continued to drop. Chart 1: Further, the data shows us t… View More

The economy is mending better than expected with strong June Jobs report and expansion in Manufacturing back on track

by Fortem Financial July 6, 2020

From depressed levels from the Corona virus, we are continuing to see some very large economic growth rates. The manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory in the U.S., rising to 52.6 in June with a surge m/m in the new orders component (a leading indicator). The Conf Board survey of consumer confidence rose to 98.1 in June, with increases m/m in both the present situation & expectations components. The present situation survey reflects recent improvements in the U.S. labor market. Th… View More

While not smooth, the move continues from the “Great Lockdown” to the re-open

by Fortem Financial June 29, 2020

While local lockdowns remain concerns (for example TX & FL), a renewed national/global restriction due to the virus is not the base case. So, from depressed levels, we are seeing some very large economic growth rates. Global PMI measures continued to bounce in June. U.S. new home sales rose +16.6% m/m in May. Durables orders increased +15.8% m/m. The NY Fed’s tracking index of weekly data continues to turn up. U.S. consumer spending cuts look to have occurred at the upper-end of the inco… View More

Saving and the Shutdown

by Fortem Financial June 22, 2020

Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions. For example, US retail sales plunged a combined 21.8% in March and April, before rising 17.7% in May. Manufacturing production fell 20.0% in March and April, before gaining 3.8% in May. Nonfarm payrolls shrank 22.1 million in March and April, followed by a gain of 2.5 million in May. The savings rate su… View More

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