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Fortem Financial

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Market rallies last week as earnings come in strong. Record Plunge in US GDP aligns with the rest of the world.

by Fortem Financial August 3, 2020

Last week, equities were positive as mega-cap technology stocks led the way with a slew of strong quarterly earnings announcements. The S&P 500 index rallied 1.5% while the Nasdaq Composite index was up 3.5%. Looking ahead to next week, Bloomberg expects 133 names in the S&P 500 index to announce quarterly results. As earnings season continues, equity markets look to learn more about how much COVID shutdowns are harming U.S. companies. U.S. real GDP plunged in 2Q, falling at a post-war… View More

Stock Market down slightly for the first time in three weeks. Oil moving higher with increased demand.

by Fortem Financial July 27, 2020

The S&P 500 Index declined 27 basis points last week after three straight weeks of gains. The index is currently up 3.82% in July which has helped push it back into positive territory for 2020 after the February-March steep market decline. Equities were up early in the week, but reversed course on Thursday with information technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services being the hardest hit sectors. Negative jobs data, along with increasing COVID-19 cases causing a decline in… View More

For the first time ever, could raising taxes be a winning campaign strategy in 2020? Earnings coming in as expected with few surprises

by Fortem Financial July 20, 2020

As we get closer to the election, the political landscape is heating up. President Trump is defending his administration's handling of Covid-19 and focusing on how strong the economy was pre-COVID-19 as well as how it's recovering post-COVID-19. Joe Biden is sharing his plans for sweeping reforms in Energy, Healthcare, and Education. In order for Biden to implement the changes he is outlining, he will have to raise taxes across the board. Given the state of the economy, it's interesting to be s… View More

New Covid-19 cases higher... Market continues higher waiting for Q2 earnings…are higher taxes really a winning strategy?

by Fortem Financial July 13, 2020

A recurring question we hear is, "How can the market continue to move higher with all of the new documented cases of Covid-19?" We believe currently available data provides valuable insight into why stocks may keep pushing higher, suggesting we may be able to balance the scales between health risks and economic risks. The first and second chart highlight that despite the increase in daily reported cases of Covid-19, the death rate has continued to drop. Chart 1: Further, the data shows us t… View More

The economy is mending better than expected with strong June Jobs report and expansion in Manufacturing back on track

by Fortem Financial July 6, 2020

From depressed levels from the Corona virus, we are continuing to see some very large economic growth rates. The manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory in the U.S., rising to 52.6 in June with a surge m/m in the new orders component (a leading indicator). The Conf Board survey of consumer confidence rose to 98.1 in June, with increases m/m in both the present situation & expectations components. The present situation survey reflects recent improvements in the U.S. labor market. Th… View More

While not smooth, the move continues from the “Great Lockdown” to the re-open

by Fortem Financial June 29, 2020

While local lockdowns remain concerns (for example TX & FL), a renewed national/global restriction due to the virus is not the base case. So, from depressed levels, we are seeing some very large economic growth rates. Global PMI measures continued to bounce in June. U.S. new home sales rose +16.6% m/m in May. Durables orders increased +15.8% m/m. The NY Fed’s tracking index of weekly data continues to turn up. U.S. consumer spending cuts look to have occurred at the upper-end of the inco… View More

Saving and the Shutdown

by Fortem Financial June 22, 2020

Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions. For example, US retail sales plunged a combined 21.8% in March and April, before rising 17.7% in May. Manufacturing production fell 20.0% in March and April, before gaining 3.8% in May. Nonfarm payrolls shrank 22.1 million in March and April, followed by a gain of 2.5 million in May. The savings rate su… View More

Market pulls back for the first time in four weeks

by Fortem Financial June 16, 2020

Last week, equities fell for the first time in four weeks. Early last week, cyclicals continued to run from the week before. On Thursday however, risks of a second wave of COVID-19 cases sent the S&P 500 down over 6.8% as investors shed risky cyclical names for relative safety in Information Technology and Communication Services. Friday cyclicals made a slight comeback, but still ended the week negative as Energy, Financials and Industrials were the worst three sectors in the S&P 500. V… View More

Thoughts on Thursday's Market Movement

by Fortem Financial June 12, 2020

We wanted to share some thoughts on the myriad of news reports floating around and on yesterday's stock market movement. Thursday's stock market movement has many asking, “What made the market drop so much?,” and perhaps more importantly, “Will this look like March all over again?” For the first question, the short answer is that investors appear to have focused on negative (and incomplete) news. For the second question, we believe the answer is NO, and we will provide a basis for that … View More

Last week’s mostly peaceful Riots bring mostly peaceful protests over the weekend and it seems the market is the only thing watching to our countries grand re-opening

by Fortem Financial June 8, 2020

We are indeed living in strange times. After a weekend of peaceful protests and violent riots, stocks opened higher today on optimism for a quicker than expected economic recovery. The S&P 500 closed out last week higher by almost 5%, erasing the losses incurred since the beginning of March. The market recovery was also observed in small and mid-cap stocks where the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 were both up over 8% last week. Investors eagerly awaited last Friday's job report because … View More

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