Perspectives

Treasury Yields dropped slightly over the course of the week on increased Covid-19 worries. On Monday, a reported more transmissible mutation of the novel coronavirus in the United Kingdom led to further lockdowns in the country and concerns across the world that the pandemic would worsen. Governments across Europe were closing travel from the U.K. due to the new strain, but France did say they would open their borders for those who have tested negative. However, experts still believe that the v… View More

There is plenty of weaker global news, including a new lockdown in London this weekend. A package of weaker economic data looks to have finally broken the stalemate on U.S. fiscal policy. Additional stimulus from D.C. appears imminent, sizeable, and front-end loaded for 2021. We’ve revised up our near-term U.S. real GDP estimate, including moving 1Q into positive territory (+3.0% q/q A.R.), and continue to look for an economic surge by mid-2021. The “19” in COVID-19 stands for 2019, markin… View More

What would normally take years to develop, research, test, manufacture, and deliver has been condensed into just months. Through Operation Warp Speed, our country has delivered to the world a Christmas gift that will be hard to beat for many years to come. Through a historic partnership between the public and private sector, our medical professionals, President Trump, and his Corona Virus task force have done the impossible in delivering lifesaving vaccines at unprecedented speed. It estimated … View More

The economic concept of “no free lunch” revolves around the idea that there are often limits when making proper decisions. In the healthcare space, we could say 2020 was a no-free-lunch year with COVID-19: if the virus is not controlled, economic activity that surprises to the upside will be followed by unacceptable (non-linear) virus spread, meaning consequent data must surprise to the downside (lockdowns take place). Europe has lived this experience during the last month. The U.S. payroll … View More

As the end of the year and the holiday season approaches, we will all see an uptick in the number of charitable solicitations arriving in our mailboxes and by email. Since some charities sell their contributor lists to other charities, frequent contributors may find themselves besieged by requests from all sorts of charities with which they are not familiar. Watch Out for Charity Scams - You need to be careful, as scammers out there are pretending to be legitimate charities looking to take adva… View More

We hope you had a great Thanksgiving weekend and were able to spend time with family and friends. As we make the final push to finish what has been an unusual 2020, we are presented with many of the same challenges that started this year, a year in which many of us wish we could turn back the hands of time and take a mulligan. The global picture continues to diverge. Europe is in an economic double-dip, with new COVID-19 lockdowns having slowed economic activity. With the virus controlled, Chin… View More

Europe appears to be in the midst of an economic double-dip, with new COVID-19 lockdowns slowing economic activity. With the virus controlled, China continues to expand. With the virus not controlled, the U.S. continues to expand. The concern in the U.S. is that activity & mobility have become too quick for virus control (especially heading into the winter holidays). We continue to deal with a non-linear series. With a tested vaccine being produced now, U.S. policymakers are feeling pressure… View More

While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy. Although the states have not yet formally certified their election results, statistical evidence compiled by the media strongly favors Biden winning. Until the votes are certified, there remains some ambiguity; recounts will be automatic … View More

We have been asked many times and in many different ways what our thoughts were on the election over the last few months. We must tell you, we look at this purely through an economic lens. There are many social issues that come and go as time moves forward, but our job is to understand the economy and that is what we like to focus on. For months we have been saying the markets are usually what we look at in trying to understand the elections. However, because of the Coronavirus, it has been muc… View More

The S&P 500 posted its worst weekly return since March due to a risk-off tone as we enter election week. Mega cap technology underwhelmed high expectations, and COVID-19 cases hit new highs across the U.S. and Europe. The five largest technology firms, which account for over 20% of the S&P 500’s weight, reported mostly disappointing results. While big technology came in ahead of consensus estimates, marginal beats and disappointing future guidance weighed across the sector. Apple Inc. … View More