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Another Reason to be Optimistic Following Yesterday's GDP Report

With all the uncertainty going on in the world, we have found more stability in looking at the reported economic data. One of the data points that we believe is crucial is personal income. We have shared many times over the years that the US economy is a consumer led economy; roughly 70% is driven by consumption. The most recent report of personal income shows that it increased 0.9% in September (+1.6% including revisions to prior months), which beat consensus expectations (again). Consensus exp… View More

The Super V recovery is real, but full recovery depends on opening our cities

To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a HUGE and VIRTUALLY UNPRECEDENTED surge of at least 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this week that could affect our forecast, but only slightly. Obviously, the US will not keep growing at this rate, but the question remains about how much might it slow? Believe it or not, because we have September data – the "jumping off point" for the four… View More

Market doesn’t seem to be worried about the upcoming election only 10 days away

The equally-weighted Value Line Index (roughly 1700 issues) is right on the cusp of breaking out to multi-year highs, following consecutive declines of roughly -25% and -45% over the last 2+ years. This is about as good of an indication we have that participation is broadening under the surface. The recent outperformance from small-caps, trading to 5-month relative highs last week, is also suggestive of this positive shift. Continued improvement from credit – BB vs. BBB corporate spreads hit r… View More

GDP Soars in Third Quarter

There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third-quarter real GDP rebounded at a 33.4% annual rate. We may make some minor adjustments to this forecast when new reports on business investment, inventorie… View More

Markets continue to show strength heading into Q3 earnings season. We share our thoughts on the market’s reaction to the upcoming election.

The S&P 500 Index returned 3.89% last week, its best performance since the shortened holiday week ending July 2. October has shown a welcoming start for equity investors following a disappointing September. After recording an all-time closing high on September 2, the index slid over a three-week period posting a -3.80% return for the month, its first negative monthly performance since March. Equities opened up on Monday on news that President Trump was recovering from coronavirus symptoms an… View More

What more can possibly happen before the election?

It felt like we packed a month worth of economic happenings into just one week. The first presidential debate, Supreme Court nomination, employment data continues to get better and many of our countries political leaders, including the President, contract the Coronavirus. Despite President Trump testing positive for coronavirus, equities ended a volatility week higher as investors became more upbeat about a potential stimulus package. While the positive test for the President creates near term u… View More

Although there remains plenty of worrisome news, businesses appear to be pushing through with their overall plans

COVID-19 cases in the United Kingdom, France, and Spain have been picking up, prompting London Mayor Sadiq Khan to have talks for new restrictions aimed to slow the spread of the virus. Treasury yields dropped over the course of the week on the increased COVID concerns in Europe and comments from the Federal Reserve. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress and said another fiscal stimulus would be important to aid the economy. These calls for additional stimulus were ech… View More

Market continues to broaden but now has an additional uncertainty…. SUPREME COURT CONFIRMATION BATTLE UPENDS THE 2020 ELECTION, STIMULUS, AND HEALTH CARE POLICY

Just when we thought we knew what would happen between now and election day, the passing of Justice Ginsberg has reshuffled the deck just 40+ days ahead of the election. President Trump is likely to nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat in the coming days with Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa being the top contenders. Coney Barrett is a devout Catholic important in the Midwest. Lagoa would be the first Cuban American woman nominated to the Supreme Court. Senate Republicans … View More

Market Volatility picking up and should stay elevated through the election

The S&P 500 Index returned -2.49% last week. The index recorded gains for five consecutive months through August and is up 4.80% year-to-date. However, the first two weeks of September have trended down with the index currently down 4.50% for the month. Crude oil closed at $37.33 per barrel on Friday, declining 6.14% for the week. This is the second straight week of losses, marking the largest two-week decline since April. Energy stocks have been under pressure posting the worst sector perf… View More

The economy is recovering much better than expected but the market hits the head winds of September

September is a notoriously difficult month for the markets. It has been consistently difficult in many years, but we were hopeful this year would be different with the Coronavirus interrupting our normal lives and habits. Since the lockdowns in March, there has been a tremendous pick up in retail investors, who now make up 25% of invested assets. Traditionally, retail investors have exacerbated market trends. Retail investors, generally speaking, tend to buy and sell at the wrong times (buy high… View More

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PRIVACY NOTICE REGARDING CLIENT PRIVACY

Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

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We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at www.fortemfin.com.

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