While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy. Although the states have not yet formally certified their election results, statistical evidence compiled by the media strongly favors Biden winning. Until the votes are certified, there remains some ambiguity; recounts will be automatic … View More
We have been asked many times and in many different ways what our thoughts were on the election over the last few months. We must tell you, we look at this purely through an economic lens. There are many social issues that come and go as time moves forward, but our job is to understand the economy and that is what we like to focus on. For months we have been saying the markets are usually what we look at in trying to understand the elections. However, because of the Coronavirus, it has been muc… View More
The S&P 500 posted its worst weekly return since March due to a risk-off tone as we enter election week. Mega cap technology underwhelmed high expectations, and COVID-19 cases hit new highs across the U.S. and Europe. The five largest technology firms, which account for over 20% of the S&P 500’s weight, reported mostly disappointing results. While big technology came in ahead of consensus estimates, marginal beats and disappointing future guidance weighed across the sector. Apple Inc. … View More
With all the uncertainty going on in the world, we have found more stability in looking at the reported economic data. One of the data points that we believe is crucial is personal income. We have shared many times over the years that the US economy is a consumer led economy; roughly 70% is driven by consumption. The most recent report of personal income shows that it increased 0.9% in September (+1.6% including revisions to prior months), which beat consensus expectations (again). Consensus exp… View More
To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a HUGE and VIRTUALLY UNPRECEDENTED surge of at least 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this week that could affect our forecast, but only slightly. Obviously, the US will not keep growing at this rate, but the question remains about how much might it slow? Believe it or not, because we have September data – the "jumping off point" for the four… View More