Perspectives

No shortage of things to discuss after today’s Fed statement and subsequent press conference. While the Fed did not cut rates – and nobody expected them to – today’s focus was on how the Fed would respond to the turn higher in inflation to start 2024. But for all the questions, there was a distinct lack of clear answers. Let’s look first at today’s Fed statement, which included more changes than usual. In particular, a new sentence was added noting that “there has been a lack of f… View More

After three straight weekly declines, equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +2.68%). Corporate earnings, especially big tech, were a key driver. Best sectors were technology (+5.11%) and consumer discretionary (+3.52%); worst sectors were materials (+0.66%) and energy (+0.74%).   1Q GDP came in lower than expected (1.6% vs 2.4%), but internals were generally okay. Core PCE inflation, however, was expected to be 3.4% but instead came in at 3.7%. After last week's stronger than expecte… View More

Stocks were on a roller coaster most of the week (S&P 500 -3.1%, Dow Jones +0% and NASDAQ -5.5%). Dominating the discussion were the geopolitical volatility in the Middle East and hawkish Fed rate conversation. The best performers were utilities (+1.9%) and consumer staples (+1.4%); the worst performers were technology (-7.3%) and consumer discretionary (-4.5%).   1. Fed Chair Powell sounded more hawkish, stating that it is likely to take longer than previously thought to achieve confiden… View More

The breakout in rates, combined with the bid to USD, strength from Oil, and the persistence from Gold, all conspired as motivation to tactically raise our guard over recent weeks. But one of the more difficult pursuits in this business is differentiating between a modest corrective phase vs. the start of something more sinister. Our base case is that this near-term weakness should be viewed as the former, but we’re incrementalists and always on guard for challenges to that thinking. About 45%… View More

In the waning seconds of one of the most watched women’s college basketball games ever, a foul was called. The University of Connecticut was playing the University of Iowa in the semi-finals of the women’s NCAA championship tournament. Officials called a UConn player for an “illegal screen” on an Iowa defender, which helped Iowa win the game. This happened Friday night, and on X (formerly Twitter) the debate about this call still rages. Despite the debate, that game is over. On Sunday, … View More

Why has recession not happened? After all, the Fed raised rates the most and fastest in modern history, the yield curve inverted, and money growth turned negative. That severely curtailed bank lending, as it normally does. So where did the money come from to sustain economic growth? Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments   Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific inves… View More

​​​​​​Equities posted their best weekly performance this year (S&P 500 +2.31%). The rally was sparked by dovish takeaways from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Best sectors were communication services (+4.78%) and technology (+2.94%); worst sectors were real estate (-0.38%) and healthcare (+0.40%).     We expect sticky consumer inflation and resilient economic growth to eventually force the Fed to pivot to a less dovish stance. Given recent data, it is … View More

Stocks fell last week (S&P 500 -0.1%) and bonds fell (the 10-year yield was up more than 20 bp) due primarily to a higher-than-expected CPI. Best sectors were energy (+3.8%) and materials (+1.6%); worst sectors were real estate (-2.8%) and consumer discretionary (-1.2%). Last week's inflation reports evidence that the glide path for a return to 2% inflation is not unfolding the ways the bulls and the Fed have been anticipating. Rather, in the case of the U.S., underlying inflation has level… View More

Why is the economy so strong? This seems to defy the normal and needed market cycles. The market came into 2023 expecting a recession, but one was nowhere to be found. The market went into 2024 expecting six Fed rate cuts. That assumption would defy normal market cycles and conditions because you should never ease conditions into an economy that is not underwater or slowing dramatically. So, how did the market get it so wrong? The answer is surprisingly easy to reach. Too much government interv… View More

We’ve had 3 soft landings -- 1967, 1985, & 1995 -- and many investors believe 2024 will be added to that list. In today’s Narrative, we compare this cycle to 1995 and 1967, drawing some cautionary conclusions. To have a soft landing in 2024, additional fiscal stimulus would be needed (such stimulus definitely kept the economy stronger, longer in 2023). And Congress definitely has new stimulus teed up. If they enact that fiscal support, will the eco backdrop resemble 1995 or 1967?   Ca… View More