Perspectives

U.S. equities were mixed last week, with the S&P 500 slightly higher (+0.3%) though NASDAQ posted its second straight week up at least 2.5%, largely driven by AI optimism. Analysts have continued to warn of narrow breadth. Best sectors were technology (+5.1%) and communication services (+1.2%); worst sectors were consumer staples (-3.2%) and materials (-3.1%). The chart below shows just how narrow the market performance has been this year. Notice the sectors that performed the worst last ye… View More

Stocks were higher last week (S&P 500 +1.6%), lead once again by the tech-heavy NASDAQ (+3.0%). YTD NASDAQ is +20.9%, S&P 500 +9.7% and DJIA +0.8%. The S&P 500 broke above 4200 for the first time since last August. The news backdrop featured seemingly positive progress on the debt ceiling negotiations. Best sectors were technology (+4.2%) and communication services (+3.1%); worst sectors were utilities (-4.4%) and real estate (-2.4%). While we are reasonably certain that inflation h… View More

What follows are some simple answers to the questions Strategas research is receiving most frequently from their clients these days. We are happy to hop on a call to discuss them in greater detail should you have further questions about our answers.   What would make you change your mind? There are two major themes underlying our bearishness on both the economy and the markets: 1) the bill is finally coming due for more than 12 years of financial repression and fiscal profligacy; and 2) g… View More

Yes, we have banking problems. No, this is not 2008. It’s much more like the 1970s Savings & Loan problems. In other words, we do not have credit problems today, we have duration (asset-liability) problems. These are exacerbated by the fact that Quantitative Easing inflated total deposits in the banking system. In the 1970s, the Federal Reserve held interest rates too low for too long. From 1974 through 1978, the federal funds rate was below inflation most of the time, and the “real” … View More

I came across an interesting article that discusses the disjointed market we have seen thus far in 2023. We believe fundamentals will drive this market as we progress through the year and believe our portfolios are positioned to reduce volatility as we proceed forward. We are overweight good high dividend paying value stocks at this time which are trading at a discount to the overall market.   Mysterious Ways: Growth vs. Value Debate by Liz Ann Sonders, Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab, 5/3/23… View More

We would like to announce exciting news. For several years, our clients have been asking to have us deliver additional added services to continue with the Ultimate Client Experience they are accustomed to. We are proud to announce that Fortem Financial has officially launched Fortem Insurance Services. This will allow us to enhance your client experience by integrating key aspects of insurance within your financial plan. Please give us a call today if you would like a review. Some of the new … View More

For nine of the last fifteen years, few people thought about the Fed. Sure, we discussed QT and QE, but the Federal Reserve held interest rates at zero year after year. In 2017 and 2018, they lifted rates, and it was all anyone talked about. Then they cut them to zero and the noise went away. Now, with rates headed up, all eyes are again on the Fed, and investors are parsing every word of its statements and the Powell press conferences. As of Friday, the futures market expects a quarter-point r… View More

1Q Earnings Marginally Ahead Of Initial Estimates After the second week of earnings reports, growth rates continue to improve marginally compared to initial estimates and now are expected to decline -4.7%, a slight improvement from last week’s -4.8%. Furthermore, sales are now expected to grow 1.9% which means margin contraction remains the story as higher costs weigh on profits. Perhaps most notable is the deceleration in financial sector earnings growth after the initial large banks reporte… View More

In an effort to be dispassionate about our market forecast, we have categorized 16 basic building blocks of market strength as either assets or liabilities on a regular basis since 2002. The weighted and unweighted measures of Strategas’ “Shareholder’s Equity” dropped to an all-time low for the series. The proximate cause for the decline was our recategorization of Profit Growth/Margins as a Liability rather than an asset. The last time this exercise was conducted was before 4Q ’22 ea… View More

Some cracks are appearing in the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims with revisions were 228,000 last week. The ISM mfg & svc indices both fell notably in March. The Fed’s H.8 release showed bank loans declining at the end of March. The Dallas Fed reported loan demand was down with contacts noting “waning consumer confidence from recent financial instability as a concern.” The American Banker Association (ABA) indicated tighter credit conditions. We continue to believe the Fed’s Se… View More