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STRATEGAS’ COMMON MAN CPI CONTINUES TO OUTPACE WAGES & HEADLINE DATA

by Fortem Financial August 19, 2024

Our research provider follows inflation, which affects us every day. The Strategas Common Man CPI is comprised of items people must buy each day, week, or month – food, energy, shelter, children’s clothing, utilities, and insurance. Real wages may have started to improve recently, but the cumulative effects of inflation indicate that the “common man’s” standard of living has deteriorated in the last four years.   January 2021   January 2017 Source: Strategas   Chart ref… View More

The Stock Market Recovery is Almost as Impressive as the Recent Decline

by Fortem Financial August 12, 2024

Stocks were down last week (S&P 500 -0.02%), although they nearly recovered from a significant decline on Monday (worst day in two years). A weaker-than-expected payroll report ignited fears about a behind-the-curve Fed and a potential hard landing. Best sectors were industrials (+1.22%) and energy (+1.19%); worst sectors were materials (-1.68%) and consumer discretionary (-1.00%).   The cause of the sell-off included: escalating concerns about an economic slowdown in the U.S., heighten… View More

OVERSOLD MARKETS, BUT AUGUST LOWS HISTORICALLY RARE… BE PATIENT

by Fortem Financial August 6, 2024

There are certainly pockets of the market more deeply oversold than others after the last few days, but on balance, we’d still stop short of calling this enough of a rinse to really lean into yet. It might be an easier call if it was October, but we frankly struggle to think of many markets that have put in their corrective lows in early August. Here’s a summary of our current thinking, but reach out with questions or requests—we’re available to help in any way.   On a scale of 1 to… View More

Uncertainty Levels Have Increased

by Fortem Financial July 29, 2024

U.S. equities were mixed again last week with the S&P 500 (-0.82%) and NASDAQ lower (- 2.08%) and the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.77%). Big tech/momentum were the biggest decliners. Best sectors were utilities (+1.47%), healthcare (+1.41%), and materials (+1.37%); underperformers included communication services (-3.76%), technology (-2.44%), and consumer discretionary (-2.31%).   The preliminary release of Q2 2024 U.S. GDP surprised to the upside (+2.8%) with the two largest drivers of t… View More

Is the Stock Market Broadening?

by Fortem Financial July 24, 2024

U.S. equity indexes were mixed last week with the market largely rotating out of big tech/momentum/growth into value/cyclicals/small caps. The S&P 500 Index was down (-1.95%); the NASDAQ fell (-3.65%); and the Russell 2000 Index was up (+2.33%). Themes included soft-landing hopes, expectations for a Fed rate pivot, and a surge in the “Trump trade.” Best sectors were energy (+2.06%), real estate (+1.32%), and financials (+1.19%); worst sectors were technology (-5.14%), communication servi… View More

So far, risk assets interpreting economic weakness as bullish (Fed can ease!)

by Fortem Financial July 15, 2024

Stocks ended higher last week (S&P 500 +0.87%), with small caps and equal-weight S&P 500 strongly outperforming the other major indexes following the post-CPI rotation out of big tech. The best performers were real estate (+4.37%) and utilities (+3.90%); the only negative sector was communication services (-3.57%).   Headline June CPI declined 0.1% m/m (versus consensus of +0.1%) (up 3.0% y/y). It was the first monthly drop since July 2022. Core CPI was +0.1% m/m (+0.2% consensus) a… View More

America's 3.5-Second Miracle

by Fortem Financial July 1, 2024

In 1852, Karl Marx said "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly encountered and transmitted from the past." He, obviously knew about the Magna Carta (1215) and the English Parliament’s Bill of Rights (1689), which created a separation of powers between the King and elected representatives. What he didn’t pay much attention to was how the United States had improved upon… View More

THINGS YOU MIGHT NOT KNOW BUT PROBABLY SHOULD

by Fortem Financial June 24, 2024

1. An AI search uses 10x the amount of electricity than that of a Google search. 2. The EIA expects global electricity usage from data centers to increase by 540 terawatts from 2022 to 2026. “This is roughly the equivalent of the electricity usage of Japan” in one year. 3. Despite government subsidies, natural gas provides 10x the amount of electricity to the American power grid than does solar. 4. Coal still provides 16% of America’s electricity generation, according to the EIA. 5. Th… View More

U.S. Equities Were Mixed Last Week

by Fortem Financial June 17, 2024

U.S. equities were mixed last week. The S&P 500 (+1.58%) and NASDAQ posted solid gains, while the Dow and Russell 2000 were both lower. Breadth was narrow again. The upside was driven in large part by another rate rally and more soft-landing optimism. The best sector was technology (+6.43%); the worst sectors were energy (-2.29%) and financials (-1.97%). Key takeaways: The U.S. CPI was flat m/m (3.3% y/y) and core (except food and energy was+ 0.2% m/m (3.4% y/y) in May. While the downsid… View More

Crosscurrents Continue to be Confusing

by Fortem Financial June 10, 2024

Equities advanced last week (S&P 500 +1.36%) as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new all-time highs. Breadth was narrow as the equal weight S&P fell for the week. Best-performing sectors were technology (+3.83%) and healthcare (+1.96%); laggards included utilities (-3.81%) and energy (-3.41%). May non-farm payrolls increased 272,000 well above consensus. The unemployment rate rose to 4.0%. the highest level in over two years. Disappointing for potential Fed rate cuts, average hourly ear… View More

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Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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