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Passing the Infrastructure Bill

by Fortem Financial August 11, 2021

The Senate just passed a new 2,700 page $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. From the Senate, the bill moves to the House where Speaker Pelosi has suggested she will not take up the bill until Senate Democrats pass a separate (and much more expensive) package without GOP votes under a budget reconciliation process. Because this bill includes the largest tax increases since 1968 (nearly three times the size of the tax increases enacted by Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Obama), we feel it is im… View More

With Nearly 90% Reported, 2Q Earnings & Revenue Growth Stellar

by Fortem Financial August 9, 2021

With just shy of 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings for the 2nd quarter, earnings growth is expected to be greater than 93%. In addition, revenue growth is estimated to be 23.5%. Both readings are well above the levels that were originally expected this reporting season. Last week also marked the second consecutive week both earnings and revenue growth expectations rose for every sector. Quarterly Progression Showing A Weaker 3Q Than 2Q Now While year-over-year earnings gr… View More

Earnings, Revenues, GDP and Inflation all run hot and still no raise in interest rates in the near future

by Fortem Financial August 2, 2021

Bottlenecks have been larger than anticipated. Inflation is starting to register on the D.C. political radar, but a wait-and-see approach is still favored. U.S. inflation is (still) viewed as transitory. Recent U.S. bond market moves have not scared the Fed. The 10-year Treasury finished last week at 1.22%. As we noted last week, the rise in inflation is pushing down real (inflation-adjusted) spending & GDP growth. U.S. nominal GDP was +13% q/q A.R. in 2Q, but inflation was 6%. Consumer sp… View More

Review of Q2 Earnings

by Fortem Financial July 26, 2021

Despite some challenges, 2Q economic growth looks solid. 3Q is more of a question mark. The rise in inflation is pushing down real (inflation-adjusted) spending & GDP growth (the core CPI rose at an 8.1% q/q annualized rate in 2Q). Rents are starting to rise. Supply-chain bottlenecks could last longer than expected, especially given uneven global vaccine distribution & effectiveness. If there is hesitation to re-open schools for the next academic year, labor force participation could re… View More

Gundlach Sees Stocks As 'Cheap' Compared To Bonds

by Fortem Financial July 19, 2021

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has been touted as the top fixed income manager for more than a decade now. Not all of his calls are 100% correct but he is right more than wrong and when he is wrong, he is not afraid to admit it. Six months ago, Gundlach told CNBC that he thought stocks were very expensive. Today, they are about 15% higher. When asked by CNBC’s Scott Wapner what he thought of equity prices yesterday, he acknowledged they were very expensive. But the “biggest case for stock… View More

Liquidity, Earnings and Sentiment (LES)

by Fortem Financial July 19, 2021

On July 9th we suggested that the bull market wasn’t over but that it was due for a breather due to already high expectations for earnings and market performance and the not insignificant chance that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was telling us something. With the preannouncement ratio below 1, there remains little room for error during the reporting season. Today we present more evidence for this point of view with our regular monitoring of our LES Model. We developed the measure abo… View More

The market trades on earnings

by Fortem Financial July 12, 2021

Earnings for the S&P 500 are poised to be up more than 60% y/y when the second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week. This will be the second greatest increase in earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2009, when profits rose +108.9%. While there are a number of heavy cyclical companies that will post significant earnings gains versus the pre-pandemic levels established in 2019, those companies hardest hit from the pandemic lockdowns - like air travel, leisure, and entertainment … View More

Looking ahead to Q2 Earnings

by Fortem Financial July 6, 2021

2Q Earnings Season Preview: Revenue Growth Expected To Be Strong With the second-quarter earnings season set to begin in the next couple of weeks, we thought it would be helpful to look at where the consensus stands at the start of the quarter. Energy companies are expected to have the greatest increase in revenue compared to last year, while the financial sector is the only one estimated to decline. Thus, overall the index is expected to see revenue growth of 18.5%. Some Sectors Estimated For… View More

Sometimes looking back, helps us see into the future

by Fortem Financial June 28, 2021

The last time the Federal Reserve announced its reduction in its bond buying policy to return interest rate policy to the free markets, was a bit messy. We thought it would be interesting to take a look back to the last time this Fed enacted this policy, to see if it will give us clues as to what we can expect when the Fed announces its tapering policy again in the upcoming months. Remembering the 2013 Taper Tantrum Back in 2013, when the market experienced the so-called “Taper Tantrum,” t… View More

Fed telling us what we already knew last week

by Fortem Financial June 22, 2021

Last week the Federal Reserve held its FOMC meeting and came out with an announcement we already knew. Outside the supply chain disruptions being caused by the global economies reopening, our economy is running hot. This announcement was subtle on Wednesday when Fed Chairman Powell made his meeting wrap up commentary but seemed to garner more attention when comments were made on Friday by one FOMC Member that rates would be raised sooner than expected. One fundamental question to ask yourself i… View More

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

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We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

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To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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