There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third-quarter real GDP rebounded at a 33.4% annual rate. We may make some minor adjustments to this forecast when new reports on business investment, inventorie… View More
The S&P 500 Index returned 3.89% last week, its best performance since the shortened holiday week ending July 2. October has shown a welcoming start for equity investors following a disappointing September. After recording an all-time closing high on September 2, the index slid over a three-week period posting a -3.80% return for the month, its first negative monthly performance since March. Equities opened up on Monday on news that President Trump was recovering from coronavirus symptoms an… View More
It felt like we packed a month worth of economic happenings into just one week. The first presidential debate, Supreme Court nomination, employment data continues to get better and many of our countries political leaders, including the President, contract the Coronavirus. Despite President Trump testing positive for coronavirus, equities ended a volatility week higher as investors became more upbeat about a potential stimulus package. While the positive test for the President creates near term u… View More
COVID-19 cases in the United Kingdom, France, and Spain have been picking up, prompting London Mayor Sadiq Khan to have talks for new restrictions aimed to slow the spread of the virus. Treasury yields dropped over the course of the week on the increased COVID concerns in Europe and comments from the Federal Reserve. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress and said another fiscal stimulus would be important to aid the economy. These calls for additional stimulus were ech… View More
Just when we thought we knew what would happen between now and election day, the passing of Justice Ginsberg has reshuffled the deck just 40+ days ahead of the election. President Trump is likely to nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat in the coming days with Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa being the top contenders. Coney Barrett is a devout Catholic important in the Midwest. Lagoa would be the first Cuban American woman nominated to the Supreme Court. Senate Republicans … View More