New Covid-19 cases higher... Market continues higher waiting for Q2 earnings…are higher taxes really a winning strategy?

A recurring question we hear is, "How can the market continue to move higher with all of the new documented cases of Covid-19?" We believe currently available data provides valuable insight into why stocks may keep pushing higher, suggesting we may be able to balance the scales between health risks and economic risks. The first and second chart highlight that despite the increase in daily reported cases of Covid-19, the death rate has continued to drop. Chart 1: Further, the data shows us t… View More

The economy is mending better than expected with strong June Jobs report and expansion in Manufacturing back on track

From depressed levels from the Corona virus, we are continuing to see some very large economic growth rates. The manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory in the U.S., rising to 52.6 in June with a surge m/m in the new orders component (a leading indicator). The Conf Board survey of consumer confidence rose to 98.1 in June, with increases m/m in both the present situation & expectations components. The present situation survey reflects recent improvements in the U.S. labor market. Th… View More

While not smooth, the move continues from the “Great Lockdown” to the re-open

While local lockdowns remain concerns (for example TX & FL), a renewed national/global restriction due to the virus is not the base case. So, from depressed levels, we are seeing some very large economic growth rates. Global PMI measures continued to bounce in June. U.S. new home sales rose +16.6% m/m in May. Durables orders increased +15.8% m/m. The NY Fed’s tracking index of weekly data continues to turn up. U.S. consumer spending cuts look to have occurred at the upper-end of the inco… View More

Saving and the Shutdown

Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions. For example, US retail sales plunged a combined 21.8% in March and April, before rising 17.7% in May. Manufacturing production fell 20.0% in March and April, before gaining 3.8% in May. Nonfarm payrolls shrank 22.1 million in March and April, followed by a gain of 2.5 million in May. The savings rate su… View More

Market pulls back for the first time in four weeks

Last week, equities fell for the first time in four weeks. Early last week, cyclicals continued to run from the week before. On Thursday however, risks of a second wave of COVID-19 cases sent the S&P 500 down over 6.8% as investors shed risky cyclical names for relative safety in Information Technology and Communication Services. Friday cyclicals made a slight comeback, but still ended the week negative as Energy, Financials and Industrials were the worst three sectors in the S&P 500. V… View More

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