Perspectives

We saw this commentary from one of the research analysts we follow. Brian Wesbury is the Chief economist at First Trust and we thought you might find his commentary interesting. This dovetails with the update we sent out last weekend about not believing everything you see or hear in the media. What Brian is discussing is the need to be honest about how and why the Federal Reserve grew its balance sheet. The Federal Reserve will finally look to start reducing its balance sheet and as it does, the… View More

Stocks pulled back last week during the holiday-shortened week as investors paused to assess the potential impact of multiple hurricanes, legislative developments, and ongoing tensions with North Korea. On Sunday, Hurricane Irma made landfall in Florida barely ten days after Hurricane Harvey caused historic flooding in Texas; and, this week, Hurricane Jose is expected to follow Irma’s path through the Caribbean. The natural disasters will sap economic activity in the third quarter; over time, … View More

We recently ran across on article on wealthmanagement.com that we thought would be timely. They, as have we, observed and increase in concern over the stock market's value (we've also encountered this concern in relation to the bond market). "Lately, we have seen an uptick in investors who express concern that stock valuations are overheated and could soon spill into bubble territory. This is predictable, thanks to markets surpassing one benchmark after another in recent months—a surge that, … View More

August was a choppy, but essentially flat month for the markets. The price return of the S&P 500 was -0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was -0.07%, and the Nasdaq’s price return was 1.59%. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was up about 0.67%. As for volatility in the markets, the VIX hit its year-to-date high on August 11th, climbing nearly 70% higher than where it started the month. Much of the increase in the VIX can be attributed to the tensions with North Korea, and certainly som… View More

Our hearts go out to the families affected by the devastation of Hurricane Harvey. The American spirit is alive and well as was demonstrated to us in last week’s search and rescue of the flooded areas. We wish all of our neighbors in Texas and Louisiana a speedy recovery. Stocks rose last week on generally upbeat economic data and elevated expectations for tax reform, even as Hurricane Harvey inflicted major damage throughout Texas and Louisiana (more on this below). The September employment … View More

Last week, a broad market rally led by small cap stocks followed the previous week’s selloff.  The Russell 2000® Index rose 1.45% while the other major indices also gained (the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%; S&P 500® Index rose 0.72% and the NASDAQ gained 0.79%).  As expected, trading volumes remained low.  The annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole garnered attention although the meeting did not reveal any notable changes in Fed monetary policy. Chair Yellen s… View More

Markets declined modestly in relatively light trading last week as political events continued to dominate headlines. Conservative areas of the market, including large cap stocks and Utility companies, outperformed while riskier areas of the market like small caps lagged. So far in the third quarter, the Russell 2000® Index of small companies (-3.9%) has significantly underperformed the large-cap dominated S&P 500® Index (+0.6%). Energy stocks also underperformed despite last week’s decli… View More

With unemployment below 5%, the stock market near record highs, inflation contained, and the possibility of pro-business policy changes, what could go wrong in the U.S. economy? Realistically, quite a few things. Besides the more obvious issues of war with North Korea, tensions with Russia, terrorist attacks from ISIS, the ongoing probe of President Trump and the potential that Trump may not be successful with his agenda for economic growth, there are other less reported on issues in the backgro… View More

While last Thursday marked one of the first notable drawdowns in a several months, the S&P is barely off -2% from recent highs. With 45% of issues above their 50-day moving average, it’s also too soon to say market momentum is washed out, particularly given the overhang of the weaker seasonal period and the recent pick-up in the new low data. August 2017 doesn’t share much in common with August 2015 when the market was struggling to get back to breakeven for the year. Looking forward, it… View More

While we are mindful of the seasonal weakness that is typical this time of year and know that low volatility is making investors anxious, I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of this trade. The trend of the market is still positive and I'd much rather be long. Pullbacks are generally buyable when the credit environment is as well contained as it is today. The leadership reversal we've witnessed over the last few weeks is risk seeking which is another supportive sign. Source: Pacific Global I… View More