Perspectives

House Republicans are pushing for a major tax reform. Below, we have included links to a number of the documents the House of Representatives has made available to explain their tax plan. We also expect the government will provide a calculator that will be available to the public to compare individual tax obligations between the current tax system and the proposed tax plan. We will continue to provide updates as more information becomes available. Please call or email us with any questions. … View More

The after effects of hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have done little to sway the opinion of Federal Reserve members that the economy is ready for further rate hikes. While leaving rates unchanged at today's meeting - as expected - they set the table for December. The Fed essentially waved off the hurricane-related September payrolls declines, and more notably strengthened rhetoric about economic growth, which they now characterize as "rising at a solid rate" compared to September's "rising m… View More

Stocks were up-and-down last week as a mixed batch of earnings reports stalled the market’s momentum. Technology led all sectors with favorable updates from Amazon and Microsoft, and strong pre-orders for Apple’s iPhone X. After their recent, and brief, pause, the FAANG group of large cap technology stocks again led the broader market to new highs. Healthcare lagged all sectors on underwhelming earnings results, particularly among biotech companies, and a shift in industry dynamics. Amazon h… View More

Stocks were higher last week as strong corporate earnings supported the markets’ continued momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, aided in large part by a 10% rise in shares of International Business Machines (IBM), surpassed 23,000 for the first time; the technology giant’s second quarter results exceeded analysts’ estimates. Signs of progress on tax reform also provided some optimism; the Senate’s adoption of a budget resolution could enable tax legislation to withstand a filibust… View More

Markets were relatively flat last week as investors gear up for third quarter earnings season (more on this below). Economic data were broadly positive and continue to point to healthy economic conditions. September retail sales grew at their fastest pace since March 2015, due in part to hurricane-related replacement activity for autos and automotive supplies. Of note in the report, building materials sales were strong, gaining 10.7% year-over-year, while online retailers (+9.2%) continued to ta… View More

As we approach the end of the ninth year of what may be the world's least loved economic recovery, we continue to hear one question repeated, "When do you think it will end?"  And with the media publishing articles like this: "There's more than a 60% chance of a global recession within the next 18 months, economist says."1 "This market indicator has predicted the past 7 recessions.  Here's where it may be headed next."2 "Next recession will hit during Trump's first 2 years."3 "The Stock Ma… View More

If the current economic expansion lasts another year and a half, it will be the longest on record, even surpassing the expansion of the 1990s that ended in early 2001. Notice how we didn't say it'll be the "best" expansion of all-time, just the longest; it's not the best by a long shot. From the recession bottom to the expansion peak, real GDP expanded 39% in the 1980s and 43% in the 1990s. So far, eight years in, this one is only up 19%. That's why we've been calling it the Plow Horse Economy.… View More

North Korea. Charlottesville. Harvey. Irma. Maria. Despite all of the Trials and Tribulation of the last quarter - alternatively scary and sad, the three months just passed was yet another example of just how comfortable investors have become with being uncomfortable. The S&P was up +4% in the quarter, notching its 8th quarterly advance. The index’s average daily change during the period was a mere 0.3%, its lowest since 1968. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but it appears that both bond yie… View More

Markets were mixed last week; small cap stocks gained while large cap stocks were essentially unchanged. Sectors which respond to economic growth, such as Energy, Industrials, and Financials, outperformed; conservative areas of the market, including many consumer stocks and Utilities, lagged. The performance variance reflects a “risk on” sentiment as investors view positively the prospects for tax reform and improving global economic conditions. Congressional leaders have promised to release… View More

Markets rose last week as Hurricane Irma caused less damage than feared and tax reform efforts took center stage. Prices for both U.S. Treasuries and gold fell following steady increases since early July; an apparent easing of geopolitical tensions with North Korea (notwithstanding Friday’s early morning launch of a missile over Japan) relaxed demand for these “safe haven” assets. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the North American benchmark, briefly surpassed $50 per barrel for… View More