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Outside of reconciliation, the only way the debt ceiling gets resolved is if one party caves, which is never easy to do

by Fortem Financial October 4, 2021

DEMOCRATIC DIVISIONS OVER THE SPENDING PACKAGE EXPLODED OVER THE WEEKEND Last Thursday Strategas (one of our research partners) outlined all of the troubles Democrats were having in moving their agenda forward and that the infrastructure vote was likely to be delayed. The delay of the infrastructure package did materialize but during that process, we saw a level of optimism emanating from Congressional leadership that a deal could take place on Friday. Senator Manchin put out his price tag Thur… View More

Inflation - Yes or No?

by Fortem Financial October 1, 2021

With inflation a key concern for most investors, we wanted to share a paper we read this week written by Bob Doll at Crossmark Global Investments. We thought it was a great review of what is happening with inflation now. Read Story   … View More

Is this the start of stagflation like we saw in the 70’s?

by Fortem Financial September 27, 2021

Global supply chain struggles have persisted in 3Q, and look set to linger for at least several more quarters. Energy prices have surged in Europe, and transportation issues are creating petrol lines in the U.K. Data from China have shown notable disruptions, though fears of financial contagion came and went quickly last week. “U.S. shipping operations remain clogged as ports, truckers and warehouses can’t find enough workers or agree on 24/7 operations … Tens of thousands of containers a… View More

They call it a Black Swan for a reason

by Fortem Financial September 20, 2021

A black swan event in the investment world is an extremely negative and usually hard to predict event; "Evergrande" has been labeled by some as just such an event. It is the latest event in China to affect the US and global markets. Many US investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have exposure to “Evergrande”, and their stocks are paying for it today. These companies represent more than 120 points of the loss on the Dow Jones Industrial average … View More

Update on Washington's proposed spending

by Fortem Financial September 14, 2021

BREAKING DOWN THE MAJOR SPENDING PROVISIONS IN THE RECONCILIATION BILL We thought you might appreciate seeing a summary of some of the provisions in the budget bill now being considered in Washington. This is a very large bill, and amazingly, if Congress keeps to its schedule they will have presented, considered, amended, and voted on it in less than 30 days. Because this bill is so large in size and broad in scope, we believe it will affect many parts of the economy. We believe it may also hav… View More

FIRST LOOK AT THE HOUSE TAX INCREASE PROPOSAL

by Fortem Financial September 13, 2021

Over the weekend Congress continued to work on the budget proposal and its accompanying tax increases. It looks like reconciliation will be used to pass them. On Saturday, the House Ways and Means Committee released 650 pages of legislative text for renewable energy, social safety nets, infrastructure bonding, and health care proposals. Yesterday, we saw the unofficial, initial outline of the House plan for tax increases, which contained roughly $2 trillion in new/additional taxes. The proposal… View More

Is The Economy starting to show signs of slowing?

by Fortem Financial September 7, 2021

The stagflation scare continues. Economic bottlenecks are lasting longer than expected. There have been new disruptions in the third quarter (eg, harsh weather, new auto plant shutdowns). The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence fell in August. U.S. vehicle sales plunged again to a 13.1 million SAAR. We’re lowering our forecast for U.S. real GDP growth in the third quarter to 2% q/q A.R. from 4.8% previously. We’re relying on inventory rebuilding to contribute to growth, as consum… View More

SEASONALS ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR “A SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER”

by Fortem Financial August 30, 2021

“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Mark Twain. To be honest, we are not particularly big fans of relying on seasonal patterns, especially in an environment when policymakers are breaking all the rules. Every snap either seems to be an audible or a broken play. Still, we believe we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that, since 1950,… View More

THE SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER (AND POSSIBLY OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER)

by Fortem Financial August 23, 2021

Good morning. We hope everyone is enjoying their summer. With the summer coming to a close, we see a growing number of client questions on policy issues impacting financial markets. Below we outline the latest state of play on the bipartisan infrastructure package, the $3.5 trillion spending budget and legislation, a potential government shutdown, the debt ceiling, and the reappointment of Fed Chairman Jay Powell. The recent news from Afghanistan, notwithstanding its geopolitical implications, … View More

Looking at what’s down the road

by Fortem Financial August 17, 2021

Liquidity Growth Slowing Along With S&P Rate Of Change The growth in M2 has been slowing for several months now, and it should come as no surprise that the rate of change in the S&P is slowing as well. This is very typical at this point in the recovery as we lap the months where liquidity was injected, and the S&P rose from the lows following the crisis. As we have stated in the past, returns are more challenging in year two and year three following a bear market. Earnings Growth T… View More

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We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

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To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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