We continue to believe that there is a disconnect between the strong US economy / robust corporate earnings and the wall-of-worry (trade, yield curve, debt levels, mid-term elections, etc.). Politics are trumping economics this midterm election year, but our base case remains intact: investors are underestimating the stimulative effects of fiscal stimulus and regulatory easing while overestimating the potential negative impacts of a trade war, a rotation (not a fade) in global growth is underwa… View More
The major indices, with the exception of the Russell 2000® Index, which has dominated markets for most of this year, closed higher last week even after a mid-week pullback following the announcement by the U.S. of an additional $200 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods in late August. As of Friday, the Chinese government had not yet responded. The equity markets rebounded strongly on Friday; for the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the indices with a 2.30% gain; the Nasdaq ros… View More
$800 billion The approximate value of stock that S&P 500 companies are on track to repurchase this year, which would eclipse 2007’s record buyback bonanza of $589.1 billion. Among the biggest buyers: Oracle, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. The historic spending spree isn't giving share prices the boost companies bargained for, and has some analysts worried that they're buying at excessive valuations during the peak of the economic cycle. Separately, business borrowing is picking up… View More
The US has officially imposed tariffs on $34 billion of imports from China, and China in response has imposed tariffs on $34 billion of US goods exported to China. We want to share some of the relevant facts to put the tariffs in perspective. In 2017, total US imports were $2.9 trillion and total US exports were $2.35 trillion. The $34 billion of tariffs equates to 1.2% of total US imports, and 1.4% of total US exports. We think this is important because both the US and China are imposing… View More
Looking at Walgreens adjusted 2018 third quarter (Q3) earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53 and revenues of $34.33 billion (surpassing analysts’ expectations of $1.47 and revenues and $33.65 billion respectively), we are reminded of the importance for investors to control emotional responses. After beating on earnings, and raising its quarterly common dividend by 10% to $0.44 a share, along with announcing a new $10 billion share repurchase program, which is scheduled to be completed in the ne… View More