Despite the fact that the US cycle is long in terms of time (9 years), there still seems to be pent-up demand and momentum in the economy, and we're adding fiscal stimulus on top of that. Inflation will rise in this environment, but only slightly, and we think more investment is likely, which will boost output per hour and release some strain on the system. The ability to fully deduct capital expenditures for the next 5 years and the shift to a territorial tax system that frees up trillions … View More
Markets were mixed this week as small cap stocks rose while large cap stocks declined. Oil prices continued to rise on the prospect of sanctions against Iran and reduced output from OPEC; Venezuela’s crude oil production, 800,000 barrels per day, is 65% below January 2016 levels. Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly surpassed $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014. And, the PHLX Oil Service Sector Index rose 4.5% for the week to post a 24.5% gain since the end of March… View More
As investors continue to climb the wall of worry, we believe that the bar is set low for an upside surprise in the markets later this year. Stocks advanced last week as investor confidence in the economic and corporate outlook improved. Lower-than-expected CPI (Inflation) and PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers, combined with last week’s report of modest wage growth, eased inflationary concerns. And, first quarter earnings season continued to outpace analysts’ estimates (more on this be… View More
Looking back on the last four months, to many of us it feels like the stock and bond markets have been run through the ringer. However, it really hasn’t been nearly as bad as it feels. We have certainly seen some big intra-day moves, but they have been both positive and negative. As of April 30th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.6%, the S&P is down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 2.7% for the year. In the bond market, the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index is down 2.4%, the S… View More
Stocks were mixed last week; the Nasdaq and Russell 2000® Index of small companies posted gains for the week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500® Index, and Russell Midcap® Index declined slightly. Earnings continued to dominate headlines (more on this below) although impressive corporate results have not yet led to broad-based gains. Still, the relative outperformance of small cap stocks may indicate a growing preference for riskier assets; historically, this area has ra… View More