September and October are traditional the most volatile months of the year. History shows us the largest one day percentage drop in history was 31 years ago, known as Black Monday, on October 19, 1987. On that day, stockbrokers in New York, London, Hong Kong, Berlin, Tokyo and just about any other city with an exchange stared at the figures running across their displays with a growing sense of dread. A financial strut had buckled and the strain brought world markets tumbling down. However, mar… View More
U.S. stocks slumped to close sharply lower today as the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank more than 800 points and the S&P 500 had its worst day since February as technology stocks went into a freefall. Investors were spooked by rising bond yields dumped equities in all sectors, triggering a broad market rout. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -3.15% skidded 831.83 points, or 3.2%, to 25,598.74, logging its worst one-day drop since February. The S&P 500 index lost 94.66 points, o… View More
Investors still seem to be underestimating the revitalizing effects of the fiscal stimulus and regulatory easing while overestimating the potential negative impact of a “trade war.” This suggests to us an increase in real GDP, inflation, bond yields, earnings, and stock prices as the year progresses. The pace of stock price appreciation (the multiple), however is likely to slow as the real economy lures liquidity away from financial assets. We continue to have a bias of value over growth and… View More
Just reaching an agreement was the first step. Now the US Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) process will kick in. By the end of 2018, we expect the International Trade Commission to issue a report for Congress detailing the economic impact of the renegotiated NAFTA agreement. The purpose of this report is to be informative for members of Congress before they vote. We have no idea how the report may score the benefits of enhanced intellectual property protection and the new financial services rules… View More
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday. And at this point, the outlook for the remainder 2018 looks largely determined, with both 75% of Fed officials and the markets pricing in one more rate hike in December to make it four for the year. What remains to be seen – and the focus for many with yesterday's release – is how policy will develop in 2019 and beyond. The only substantive change in yesterday's statement was the removal of a sentence noting the sta… View More