President Trump’s announcement last night delaying an escalation in China tariffs from going into effect on March 1 shows that we are moving towards a deal in the coming month.Trump is becoming more pro-growth and is looking for a deal ahead of his re-election. Avoiding the escalation of tariffs prevents an additional $50bn of tariffs from going into effect in CY 2019. We are having a harder time seeing a path to removing existing tariffs, which will be largely dependent on the Chinese making … View More
While the market has paused over recent days, the equally-weighted S&P has continued to outperform and reflects an improvement for the “average stock.” The equity markets started last week on a positive note before retreating as trade concerns and Brexit dampened investor enthusiasm. The major indices rose fractionally: the Nasdaq gained 0.55%, followed by the Russell 2000® Index (0.29%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.17%) and the S&P 500® Index (0.05%.) Trade concerns… View More
Equities posted the best January results in thirty years; the abrupt reversal of fortune, while perhaps bittersweet, signaled renewed confidence in the economy. For the week the S&P 500® Index rose 1.57%, followed by the Nasdaq (1.38%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.32%) and Russell 2000® Index (1.29%). On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and removed longstanding commentary that further rate increases may be necessary. The Fed also stated that its prima… View More
Today the Federal Reserve Board decided to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged. More importantly, they also said that "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes." After the December meeting (when the Fed raised rates by 0.25%), we shared that we thought Powell's (and the Federal Re… View More
The equity markets ended this holiday-shortened week essentially unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.12%) and the Nasdaq (+0.11%) led with modest gains followed by the Russell 2000® Index (+0.02%) while the S&P 500® Index fell 0.22%. Shortly before the markets closed on Friday, President Trump announced a deal with lawmakers to approve a bill which would reopen the federal government until February 15th while negotiations continue. State unemployment claims for last week … View More