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Q3 Earnings Reports Coming in Better than Feared

by Fortem Financial October 24, 2022

Stocks rose last week (S&P 500 +4.7%) after falling to a 2.5 year low the week before. The increase was attributable to technical and sentiment reasons, but also Q3 earnings reports coming in less bad than feared. Best sectors were energy (+8.1%), technology (+6.5%), and materials (+6.2%); worst sectors were utilities (+2.0%), consumer staples (+2.2%), and healthcare (+2.3%). 3Q’22 Earnings Season Mixed So Far With just 20% of companies reporting thus far this earnings season, results ha… View More

AS Q.E. moves to Q.T., Markets Resume Control

by Fortem Financial October 17, 2022

The nearly 14 years of financial repression that allowed politicians to escape the economic consequences of their actions without fear of retribution from the frontier justice of free markets appears to be ending. The ever-expanding balance sheets of the world’s largest central banks effectively monetized the profligate spending of wayward fiscal policies in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Until recently, the unintended consequences of these policies were hidden from an eli… View More

The Roller Coaster Ride In Both Directions Continues

by Fortem Financial October 10, 2022

Equities closed higher (S&P 500 +1.6%) in a roller-coaster week, snapping a three-week losing streak. Stocks bounced early in the week on oversold conditions and negative sentiment. There was also a renewed pickup in policy pivot hopes. The week ended with a stronger than hoped for employment report selloff. Best sector was energy (+13.9%); worst sectors were REITS (-4.1%) and utilities (-2.6%). 3Q Earnings Season To Kick Off Later This Week With The Banks With the banks expected to repo… View More

Central Banks Seem Determined To Slay Inflation (and Likely Cause a Recession)

by Fortem Financial October 3, 2022

Stocks and bonds both declined for the third consecutive quarter, the longest streak in almost 50 years. The S&P 500 fell 5.3%, ten-year Treasury yields rose 85bps and two-year yields rose 130bps resulting in the most inverted yield curve in several decades. The dollar rose for the fifth straight quarter, increasing 7%, the largest quarterly gain in nearly 8 years. The big story for the quarter was the tightening of financial conditions driven by expectations of a more aggressive global rate… View More

Weekend Reading

by Fortem Financial October 1, 2022

Stocks And Bonds On Pace For 3rd Consecutive Negative Quarter Of the 187 quarters since 1976, there has never been a period that has seen negative quarterly returns for both stocks and bonds three quarters in a row. Should the S&P 500 close below 3,785 today, this will occur. Negative returns for both stocks and bonds are more often than not associated with recessions which are looking more and more likely these days. S&P 500 Sees Its Most Volatile Half Since 2009 My colleague, Todd… View More

We are in a Bear Market and have invested appropriately for our clients

by Fortem Financial September 27, 2022

We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 666. What a time to buy! After that we remained bullish. We didn’t recommend selling in spite of a wide range of fears that spooked many others, including the Great Recession lasting through 2010, a double-dip recession, a second wave of home foreclosures, an implosion in commercial real estate, the pass… View More

MIDTERMS & MARKETS

by Fortem Financial September 19, 2022

Midterm election years have historically been the most volatile year for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle. The average intra-year decline for the S&P 500 in a midterm election year is 19 percent, much higher than the 12-13 percent average in the first, third, and fourth years of the cycle. We would argue that monetary policy is generally tighter in a midterm election year and presidents pursue anti-growth policies to rally their bases. Today’s equity market fits the historical pa… View More

U.S. CORE INFLATION IS STILL A PROBLEM … HAWKISH FED JUSTIFIED

by Fortem Financial September 13, 2022

Numbers do not lie, and the inflation numbers for August were released this morning. Today’s Inflation (CPI) numbers show Inflation in August went up from the previous month. The market is selling off today because the bond market is adjusting to the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising rates at their next meeting by at least 75bps. With inflation at these levels, the FED will need to continue to raise rates to stem off inflation making the prospects of a soft landing fade. The U.S. CPI ro… View More

Crosscurrents in Both Directions Continue to Lead to Sideways Chop

by Fortem Financial September 12, 2022

U.S. equities rallied this week (S&P 500 +3.7%) to break three-straight weekly declines. The gains were driven by factors including oversold conditions, some more traction in the peak-inflation narrative, and firmer labor market data. Treasuries sold off sharply with the curve flattening. Best sectors were consumer discretionary (+5.6%) and materials (+5.0%); worst sectors were energy (+0.7%) and consumer staples (+1.9%). Source: Bob Doll Chief Investment Officer Crossmark Investments C… View More

Corporate Earnings still look strong in 2023

by Fortem Financial September 6, 2022

2023 Earnings Decline Paused For Now After falling roughly $9 during the 2Q reporting season, the 2023 earnings estimate has stabilized at approximately $243.50, with 2023 earnings growth expected to be about 8%. However, we continue to believe that earnings estimates for 2023 are too high, and expectations will once again be revised down during the 3Q reporting season. Financials & Discretionary Expected To Increase Their Contribution In 2023 Considering the sector contributions for 20… View More

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Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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