The breakout in rates, combined with the bid to USD, strength from Oil, and the persistence from Gold, all conspired as motivation to tactically raise our guard over recent weeks. But one of the more difficult pursuits in this business is differentiating between a modest corrective phase vs. the start of something more sinister. Our base case is that this near-term weakness should be viewed as the former, but we’re incrementalists and always on guard for challenges to that thinking. About 45%… View More
In the waning seconds of one of the most watched women’s college basketball games ever, a foul was called. The University of Connecticut was playing the University of Iowa in the semi-finals of the women’s NCAA championship tournament. Officials called a UConn player for an “illegal screen” on an Iowa defender, which helped Iowa win the game. This happened Friday night, and on X (formerly Twitter) the debate about this call still rages. Despite the debate, that game is over. On Sunday, … View More
Why has recession not happened? After all, the Fed raised rates the most and fastest in modern history, the yield curve inverted, and money growth turned negative. That severely curtailed bank lending, as it normally does. So where did the money come from to sustain economic growth? Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific inves… View More
Equities posted their best weekly performance this year (S&P 500 +2.31%). The rally was sparked by dovish takeaways from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Best sectors were communication services (+4.78%) and technology (+2.94%); worst sectors were real estate (-0.38%) and healthcare (+0.40%). We expect sticky consumer inflation and resilient economic growth to eventually force the Fed to pivot to a less dovish stance. Given recent data, it is … View More
Stocks fell last week (S&P 500 -0.1%) and bonds fell (the 10-year yield was up more than 20 bp) due primarily to a higher-than-expected CPI. Best sectors were energy (+3.8%) and materials (+1.6%); worst sectors were real estate (-2.8%) and consumer discretionary (-1.2%). Last week's inflation reports evidence that the glide path for a return to 2% inflation is not unfolding the ways the bulls and the Fed have been anticipating. Rather, in the case of the U.S., underlying inflation has level… View More