Stocks closed higher last week (S&P 500 +2.7%) at their highest level in a month. The main macro tailwinds include the decline in inflation (CPI) and improved consumer sentiment. Best sectors were consumer discretionary (+5.8%) and technology (+4.6%); worst sectors were consumer staples (-1.5%) and healthcare (-0.2%). Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Global Investments Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com Latest News TaxWatch: IRS wraps up paying p… View More
The Internal Revenue Service offered a lifeboat of sorts Tuesday to California residents and businesses floundering in the atmospheric river: More time to pay their income taxes. The agency announced that taxpayers in any county covered by a federal emergency declaration would have until May 15 to file their income tax returns for 2022. So far, 31 of the state’s 58 counties are in that group, including Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego and Ventura counties; if the declaration is extended to more… View More
Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.” In turn, the theory goes, the Federal Reserve could stop raising short-term rates earlier and at a lower peak than previously expected, inflation would continue to cool, and the economy could pull-off an elusive “soft landing.” The biggest headli… View More
Is a U.S. recession or economic recovery in store for 2023? Risk: With inflation peaking at 9.1% in June, a recession is now the No. 1 economic concern going into 2023. When businesses make less money due to lower consumer spending (triggered by dwindling reserves, price pressures and an aggressive Fed), companies lay off workers and more people are hesitant to spend. Weak expectations or prior over-investing also factor into the equation, with many firms feeling that large swaths of the … View More
What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%, and we should expect a grand total of three 25 basis point (bp) rate hikes by the end of the year. Instead, it looks like real GDP will be up about 0.5%, PCE prices will be up 5.6%, and we had the equivalent of seventeen 25 bp Fed rate hikes, finishing the year at 4.375%. So, if you feel a little dizzy about all… View More