With unemployment below 5%, the stock market near record highs, inflation contained, and the possibility of pro-business policy changes, what could go wrong in the U.S. economy? Realistically, quite a few things. Besides the more obvious issues of war with North Korea, tensions with Russia, terrorist attacks from ISIS, the ongoing probe of President Trump and the potential that Trump may not be successful with his agenda for economic growth, there are other less reported on issues in the backgro… View More
While last Thursday marked one of the first notable drawdowns in a several months, the S&P is barely off -2% from recent highs. With 45% of issues above their 50-day moving average, it’s also too soon to say market momentum is washed out, particularly given the overhang of the weaker seasonal period and the recent pick-up in the new low data. August 2017 doesn’t share much in common with August 2015 when the market was struggling to get back to breakeven for the year. Looking forward, it… View More
While we are mindful of the seasonal weakness that is typical this time of year and know that low volatility is making investors anxious, I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of this trade. The trend of the market is still positive and I'd much rather be long. Pullbacks are generally buyable when the credit environment is as well contained as it is today. The leadership reversal we've witnessed over the last few weeks is risk seeking which is another supportive sign. Source: Pacific Global I… View More
Markets, with the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, were roughly flat last week; the Dow rose 1.2% on strong earnings results from Boeing, Caterpillar, and Verizon.The Energy sector outperformed as oil prices continued to rally; Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 9% this week to close above $50 per barrel for the first time since early June. The increase was driven, in part, by Saudi Arabia’s comments on Monday of its plan to further reduce oil exports in order to bo… View More
The Federal Reserve made no changes to interest rates today and made almost no changes to the text of its statement. However, the wording changes it did make strongly support our view the Fed will announce the start of balance sheet reductions at the end of its next meeting on September 20. First, the Fed qualified its reference to maintaining its current policy of rolling over principal payments by saying this was the policy only for the "time being." Second, at the last meeting in June, the … View More