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OUR BASE CASE FOR THE HOME STRETCH & BEYOND

by Fortem Financial December 2, 2024

As December gets underway, here’s a quick bullet point update on our “base case.”

 

  • The market’s primary trend remains up with 77% of S&P 500 issues above the 200-day moving average and seasonality a strong tailwind through January…
  • …But, leadership is still evolving – Tech’s complete grip on the market has eased considerably since summer and the sector has split (e.g., Software vs. Semis).
  • Cyclicals continue to carry the flag of leadership, particularly Financials and Industrials. Consumer Discretionary has also improved internally and remains dominant vs. Staples.
  • The biggest risk we see over coming months is sentiment… flows are white hot, and the investor surveys and sell-side forecasts are starting to reflect one-way thinking – we’ll watch this, but likely a bigger threat as the calendar fades in February/March.
  • The consensus is anxious about rates and deficits post-election, but the market less so… still no life from defensives or any agitation from credit conditions.
  • There are too many bond bears out there… we lean more bullish than the consensus here. U.S. 10-year yields turned away at 4.50%, while European yields break to fresh lows.
  • Our gut says Yen weakness also on its last leg… USDJPY turned away at a lower-high, while EURJPY, MXNJPY, etc. trade back to the lows. Rate differentials also support stronger Yen.
  • The Oil chart remains in a weak technical position, but Nat Gas has turned in our work… we’re considerably more bullish on the latter.
  • Gold is correcting but has the benefit of a strong longer-term uptrend with support at the 200-day, while Bitcoin’s strength continues to suggest liquidity conditions remain abundant.

Source: Strategas

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 11/29/2024

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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