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It makes no difference what comes out of Washington they will not derail our great economy…..No matter how hard they try!!!

by Fortem Financial September 30, 2019

Politics overshadowed trade again this week with House Speaker Pelosi’s announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The equity markets reaction reflects concern that the inquiry might imperil Congress’ approval the USMCA agreement and hold up spending bills. The resulting “risk off” sentiment led to across-the-board weekly declines as the Russell 2000® Index declined 2.52%, followed by Nasdaq (‑2.19%), S&P 500® Index (-1.01%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.43%). Numerous journalists, in looking back at the Nixon and Clinton impeachments, observed that other economic and non-impeachment geopolitical events dominated market activity and momentum.

Is anything really new here? Impeachment talk has been an ongoing topic since President Trump took the oath of office. Over that same time period, we have had one of the strongest economies we have seen in the last 40 years. With the assistance of the tax cuts and reduced regulation, Trump has been able to deliver real economic growth to working families. With unemployment at an all-time low and wage growth outpacing inflation for working families for the first time in more than 25 years, it is very hard to see anything Washington cooks up that will derail the current economic growth. Our feeling is that Congress will not pass the USMCA. Unfortunately these are the times we currently live in. We believe the gridlock in Washington will likely last through the elections, but this is nothing new. Gridlock has been the new normal for well over a decade.

Investors will pay close attention to gauge the effects of the impeachment inquiry as scheduled trade talks between the U.S. and China resume in mid-October. Early this week, China, in a sign of goodwill, granted tariff waivers for the purchase of soybeans, pork and other agricultural products. The purchases provided some much-needed relief for U.S. farmers. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin commented that, notwithstanding this encouraging sign, intellectual property remains “the most important issue.” One additional accomplishment of note that went unreported last week was that President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Abe also announced the first stage of a new trade agreement; the deal will cover $7B in U.S. agricultural products, investment, and digital trade ($40B) while negotiations will continue with respect to auto tariffs and other areas.

The United Auto Workers Union strike against General Motors has become the longest one since 1970. As negotiations continue, local businesses and auto suppliers are beginning to reduce operations.

Headline news, rather than continued economic growth, dominated market sentiment. As earnings season approaches, investors will get a closer look at the manner in which companies navigate tariffs and their 2020 outlooks.

Source: Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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