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Great year so far but the Market is currently treading water waiting for Q3 earnings next week

by Fortem Financial October 7, 2019

Through September, the S&P 500® Index posted a year-to-date gain of 19%, its best performance since 1997; these results, though, mask the modest 2.2% one-year performance. The equity markets reversed course last Tuesday following the release of the September ISM Manufacturing Index; the 47.8 reading, the lowest level in ten years, heightening recessionary fears. On Friday, the equity markets recovered with a “goldilocks” jobs report. The economy added 136,000 jobs in September and unemployment declined to 3.5%, the lowest level since December 1969. For the week, the Nasdaq rose 0.54% while the other indices, the S&P 500® Index (‑0.33%), Dow jones Industrial Average (-0.92%) and Russell 2000® Index (-1.30%), declined.

The global economy continues to reflect on-going tariff-related stresses as companies endure declines in business activity while others have tabled growth initiatives while awaiting a resolution to the trade disputes. The World Trade Organization ruled in favor of the U.S. in a long-simmering dispute with the European Union related to its Airbus subsidies; as of October 18th, the U.S. can impose up to $7.5 billion in offsetting tariffs on EU products. Scheduled trade talks between the U.S. and China resume this week; some expect an interim agreement as both countries face the prospect of an economic slowdown and the potential for a global recession. Commentaries from each country are somewhat encouraging yet the details remain unknown.

Consumer spending remains the bright spot in the economy; strong September auto sales project annual sales of 17 million, an increase over earlier estimates. The Technology sector received a boost on reports that Apple has asked suppliers for a 10% production increase for its new iPhone. Higher employment across all sectors, with modest wage gains, continue to fuel consumer spending despite the shadow of tariffs. Not exactly a sign of an economy about to go into recession as the news media has predicted.

This week will focus on prospects for an interim trade agreement. The slowing economy also raises the possibility of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts during the fourth quarter. Trading volumes remain low as investors take a wait and see attitude. Trade issues, and quarterly earnings reports, will determine the markets’ direction entering the fourth quarter.

Source: Pacific Global Investment Management Company

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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