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Coronavirus vs. H1N1 Pandemics

by Fortem Financial March 13, 2020

We continue to hear that the world has NEVER known something like the Coronavirus pandemic, so we decided to do some digging to see what we could find. Interestingly, the first thing we came across was the "H1N1" flu virus. You can access the information yourself from the CDC's website following this link if you would like to:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

We quote from the CDC, "In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged. It was detected first in the United States and spread quickly across the United States and the world. This new H1N1 virus contained a unique combination of influenza genes not previously identified in animals or people." The CDC went on to say that, "From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1) virus. Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated."

While it is still too early to make the statement that H1N1 was as bad (or worse) than the Coronavirus will be, we believe it is completely appropriate to discuss how the world viewed H1N1.

  • For H1N1, the world economy kept moving despite the high rate of infection and the higher relative mortality rate.
  • For H1N1, despite the high rate of infection (and mortality), it was not considered much of an economic event - but then again, it came on the heels of the great recession.
  • For H1N1, the world was not placed under quarantine - people were told to wash their hands and stay home when sick.
  • During the H1N1 outbreak, from March 9, 2009 through the next twelve months, the S&P 500 went on to gain over 70%.
  • H1N1 demonstrates that we as a world have dealt with recent pandemics, and they did not kill the global economy.

It appears to us that the world economic reaction to Coronavirus may be overdone. Coronavirus will pass, as did H1N1 in 2009, and life will return to normal. Further, the current global focus on reducing the human impact of Coronavirus may very well leave the world with less death and infection than H1N1 caused in 2009.

We are grateful for the efforts to preserve and improve the lives of those affected by the virus, and we would caution investors not to over-react to the fear of another global pandemic; they are more regular than we likely realize.

Please call or email us with any questions.

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
www.fortemfin.com
(760) 206-8500

 

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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