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COMMON MAN CPI CONTINUES TO RUN HOT

by Fortem Financial May 21, 2024

The primary justification for excluding food and energy from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “core” CPI number is that the data are noisy and, therefore, difficult for economists to forecast. Naturally, that raises another question: Does the data exist for economists and policymakers to make their decisions, or do they exist for regular people when deciding how to run their economic lives?

Excluding food, energy, and housing from the “supercore” measure seems a little much because, let’s face it, eating, staying warm, and protecting oneself from hypothermia seem pretty “supercore” for the average person. I would last about 10 minutes in the wild. In any event, we created our Common Man CPI to focus on items that people must buy regularly – food, energy, shelter, clothing, utilities, and insurance.

We exclude anything we would deem discretionary, from flat-panel television screens to flights to Fort Lauderdale. Yesterday’s Common Man CPI grew at 3.8% y/y; it exceeded the headline inflation number for the ninth consecutive month. Our Common Man CPI has also exceeded the headline number in 34 of the 40 months of the Biden Administration. As an election issue, President Biden may run out of time to turn voters’ perceptions around.

 

Strategas' Common Man CPI vs. Wages

Source: Strategas

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 5/17/2024

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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