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China negotiations moving forward... Brexit is a mess, but does anyone care?

by Fortem Financial March 4, 2019

Equity markets were mixed last week as no significant events motivated investors to buy or sell.  The Nasdaq led the indices this week with a 0.90% gain, followed by S&P 500® (0.40%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.02%) and Russell 2000® Index (-0.03 %).  Early in the week, President Trump announced a postponement of additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products with no extension date provided.  Reports later in the week indicated that President Trump and President XI may meet in mid-March and potentially sign a new trade agreement.  At this time no specific details have been released so investors have been tempered in their response as they await details and the fate of existing tariffs already in place.  Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council, commented about “fantastic” progress on trade discussions; he is working to remove steel tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel.   However, trade representative Lighthizer’s testimony earlier last week expressed skepticism regarding outstanding issues.

Amid much news surrounding Brexit, the path forward remains a mystery.  Prime Minister Teresa May promised U.K. lawmakers a vote on delaying the departure from the European Union if they reject her Brexit deal on March 12th; Members of Parliament will be given a chance to vote on a no-deal Brexit or on delaying the departure. This update reduces the possibility of a no-deal Brexit while it introduces a new level of uncertainty and complexity. On Wednesday, President Trump cut short negotiations with North Korean’s leader Kim Jung-un; President Trump commented that North Korea’s requirement for lifting sanctions prior to substantive progress on de-nuclearization were unacceptable.  The stalemate left in doubt the potential for further progress.  The estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter came in at 2.6%; this despite decreased state and federal spending impacted by the government shutdown.  The 2.9% growth rate for the year matched 2015’s results as the highest growth rate achieved since the Great Recession.  The Federal Reserve is forecasting a 2.3% growth rate for 2019 although a trade resolution may change its estimate.

Economic and geopolitical events will likely provide the primary catalysts for the equity markets during March in the run-up to first quarter earnings reports in mid-April.  The CBOE Volatility Index rose above 36 at the depths of the equity sell off in December.  Today, the Index closed at 13.63, a reading solidly within the range of the 2018 market rally.  The December panic has receded as the investment landscape improved in early 2019; even so, cash balances remain at high levels.  The question remains as to what catalysts will motivate these investors to return to the market.

Source:  Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. 

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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