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Bull - Bear - Bull Market, and all within 3 weeks

by Fortem Financial March 27, 2020

Best week for the Dow since the 1930's and making strides on the Coronavirus….From the longest Bull market in history… to a bear market… back to a Bull market… all within 3 weeks...truly historic events are at hand

We wanted to drop you a short note after the last few weeks, which have been nothing short of exhausting and nerve racking. After many record down and record up trading sessions, it appears the markets may have finally found an equilibrium on Monday. With our war on this silent killer making great advancements as well, we think the worst (in the market) is behind us for the time being. That said, we would completely expect to see up days and some back filling down days as we move forward and see how different industries are affected by the forced economic shut down.

We sent out a number of updates trying to keep you as informed as we could on both the quick moving news affecting your portfolios and the opportunities we see developing. We mentioned how oversold the markets were and that when it hit an inflection point it would release like a stretched out sling shot propelling the markets up as fast as they came down. Tuesday was an inflection point with the Senate finally getting serious and negotiating a strong aid package to help the American people and American businesses.

We also believe expanded rapid testing may allow some areas to open up sooner than some may expect. This coupled with businesses adapting to "social distancing" may help get the country’s economic engine started again sooner than expected. We are seeing business and people alike adapt to "curbside pickup", live-streaming dance lessons, remote public education, new movies released for streaming, etc. This may be classified as the Speedbump recession. We think GDP in Q1 will be a little less than 1% annualized and the GDP for Q2 will be somewhere between -10 to -15%. We do see the GDP for Q3 and Q4 north of 3% based on research we are currently reading. We will keep you posted as things move forward but we think things are moving in the right direction.

As you saw with yesterday’s new unemployment applications, the shutdown has been swift and ugly just as the markets predicted. We completely expect more ugly economic reports to come, but as you saw yesterday, the markets have much of this bad news is priced in at the current levels. The good news is there is light at the end of the tunnel, and as we said before, we do not think it is a runaway train.

Early data shows that the shelter-in-place initiatives are slowing the spread of the virus. The President and his Coronavirus task force have made great strides in therapeutics and vaccines over the last few weeks. There will be a lot of data for them to review this weekend, and we believe they will start to put policies in place to start opening up some parts of the country sooner than later. Even Governor Cuomo from New York has admitted that the social distancing strategy currently being implemented has its drawbacks, and he is on board with working to find ways to get people back to work. We are fortunate to live in a time when we can adapt to remote work options, food and supply delivery services like Amazon's, and rapidly deployed testing to identify possible solutions to the virus.

Our rebalancing strategy has worked well moving into areas of the market where we see value in at this time. We will continue to make adjustments to the portfolios in the next few weeks.

On a personal note. We hope you and your families are staying safe and actually taking time to spend together and reconnect. We have such busy lives that we often neglect the things that we most cherish. Take time now, because when we are all sent to go back to work, we will all probably be running to make up for the lack of productivity over the last few weeks.

Feel free to contact us at any time with any questions or concerns.

God Bless,

Fortem Financial
www.fortemfin.com
(760) 206-8500

 

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:
Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved.

Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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